A Visual

I didn't want my last post, Quick Market Update to come off sounding more uncertain than the market really is. I'd say that the near term uncertainty is on the level of something like today's move itself and not much beyond that, but the market is dynamic and until I see high probability, low risk, solid entries/trades based on objective information, it's my job to give you what I know and not to try to force anything, just be transparent about the market and you can use that in your analysis or disregard it.

As a visual of the charts so you have some idea and I didn't give you the wrong impression...

 SPY 60 min since the April 2nd positive divergence and now a deep leading negative divergence.

 QQQ 30 min through the same time frame and a leading negative divergence/distribution in to higher prices and the b/o head fake area.

IWM 15 min with the same trend.

*These are the most important charts, the highest probability as they represent the largest flow of funds.

 QQQ 5 min leading negative in a stronger way at its breakout/head fake area, this is how we confirm a suspected head fake move, look for confirmation or a divergence.

 IWM 3 min doing the same as the trend develops

The SPY 2 min chart above is negative intraday as is its 3 min and 5 min, all similar to this.

However the "steering" timeframe of 1 min which represents the nearest term trade, but also the weakest, looks like this...

 That's not a negative divegrence and thus as a timing indication, although very weak and causing me little to no worry, is telling me the "ballet" has not aligned which is what I also saw in futures, although those may clear up overnight.

The Q's have a VERY different look, very ugly, but I have to consider futures as well...

 QQQ 1 min trend since the head fake breakout, you can't ask for better head fake confirmation or a false breakout.

What this means in practical terms for trade ideas...I love NFLX short, I consider it a core short position, I would take it here as a trend trade/core short, but I'm looking specifically for an options/Put position entry.

The long term daily chart shows the multiple stages of a cycle/trend from left to right showing a stage 3 top, then stage 4 decline, capitulation at "C" followed by a new stage 1 base and rounding bottom, then stage 2 mark-up in to a HUGE stage 3 top (Broadening Top) with a head fake move sitting just above, a near perfect equity short entry for a trend trade.

The charts agree...

 2 hour shows the accumulation before last earnings I suspected were to bail out market makers who had losses from a large previous gap down as they held inventory at the higher levels, thus the rally on horrible earnings as it was already put in to place well before earnings. Then our short at the exact top on Feb. 26th at #3, the next gap up earnings at 4 and a worsening leading negative divegrence with NO confirmation at all.

The 60 min chart confirming the same.

The 30 min chart confirming the same.

And the 5 min chart with clear details confirming the same, these are the highest probability/strongest signals, all negative.

However for an options trade, timing is key...

This 1 min intraday chart of NFLX is not giving me a strong signal to enter that put position, it's not giving much of a signal at all, thus I'd be making a decision based on opinion as far as timing rather than objective evidence.