AAPL Market Proxy

Coming full circle back to where it began on April 2 with the analysis and forecast that started with AAPL as a market proxy as well as multiple assets and the averages; all of which were showing some sort of triangle. AAPL just happened to be the last chart I looked at before I felt strongly about the forecast and it had the cleanest looking triangle.

 While the AAPL daily chart shows a triangle, it is too large to be a consolidation continuation price pattern. Large triangles tend to be tops or bottoms depending on the preceding trend. The forecast on April 2 was for these triangles which we're pinching in volatility TC and upside breakout which would be revealed as a false breakout or a head fake that would not hold and eventually fail leading to a larger primary trend to the downside, one I suspect we'll take out the October lows eventually. While I don't have time to go into the particulars of why head fake moves are seen about 80% of the time before reversals both up and down, there is a good reason for it and as I showed several times, none of these triangles are organic as you'll see below. The perfect head fake set up.
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Furthermore volume on the breakout of Apple's triangle has been dismal.

AAPL 1 min. The trend has turned lateral which is where we most often see strong underlying trade such as the negative divergence today.

 This chart shows a head fake move to the downside, a stock run on huge volume which was accumulated. This is the same concept that holds true for upside head fake moves except they are distributed. An effective head fake move needs a very visible technical  area to be effective. In this case the break of support at the yellow trendline hits stops causing selling which was accumulated as technical traders are very predictable. On the way up from the breakout of Apples triangle there's brief confirmation before distribution sets in.

 This large W base with significant accumulation, in proportion with the following move is right into April 2 forecast which I have marked below on the time axis. Note the in-line three she signal on this two minute chart and as Apple makes a break out high, the distribution of those higher prices. This is effectively what the entire April 2 forecast was about.

On a five minute chart we have another smaller W bottom and the actual breakout from the triangle with an initial confirmation as you don't want to kill the baby in the crib as you need higher prices to sell into, the current distribution should be clear.

 This very strong 15 minute chart shows the W bottom and its divergence once again. There are only two small negative divergences and both are within the triangle. I made the case on April 2 that these triangles were not organic they were formed. Compare the price and 3C levels at point A and point B.

 On this 30 minute chart I can mark multiple small negative and positive divergences through the area of the triangle, these were used to create the triangle which can be seen in a number of assets as well as market averages.. As I said, technical traders need something familiar that will cause them to act and Wall Street has there number as they have not changed the basics of technical analysis and its dogma for nearly a century. That's predictability that's easily used against technical traders.

The 30 minute negative divergence is the focus of this chart on Apple's breakout from a large, clear triangle.

While I'm having some trouble with getting my indicator to scale all the way out this is a four hour chart with an overall very negative sentiment.

Apple has earnings on Monday and I usually don't like trading earnings unless there is a very strong edge, if I consider a position in Apple it will be Monday before the close.  I suspect there may be a position opened Monday.