Intraday Market Update

So far, while being an interesting day in seeing the QQQ make an anticipated or expected price move much more in line with the emotional extremes head fake moves are associated with (as you may have noticed yesterday I was clearly disappointed) while the other averages are acting more like they're engaged in an op ex max-pain pin which should diminish the closer we get to 2 PM.

From a criminal enterprise perspective otherwise known as Wall Street, the most effective use of a head fake is to let the headlines simmer over the weekend with retail traders placing orders Sunday night or Monday before they head off to work. In addition as you know I am not a big believer in a V shaped reversal process. The more "U" shaped (or pick your top) reversal tends to not only be more realistic (as a reversal is a process is rarely an event) , but we get the added and if it of stronger 3C signals. This is sort of a "chicken or the egg" scenario, but the way I see it is distribution continues until prices fall of their own weight and the deeper  3C divergences during this time are simply a reflection of that process.

All in all, everything looks very good for confirmation of a head fake move, Probably about staying on the queue queue queue move today on nothing more than horrible earnings. Point being, the Q's did not move on "good" earnings or any other news. As you know my opinion is they moved on the very common Head fake we have been forecasting for over a week.

As far as intraday charts, it is difficult to see them continue to deteriorate and maintain patience, but that is the edge. However this tends to give us the only confirmation we can get, which is during the move (despite probabilities being very strong long before).

Again I'm dealing with short-term charts so there may be some difference since I've captured them. I've tried to add in a few different multiple time frame perspectives.

There are so many charts, I will not be able to comment on all of them with everything I have to do today, but I will put the asset and timeframe

 TICK remains very mellow today, Actually quite negative considering.

 DIA one minute intraday

 DIA 1 min trend

 DIA 5 min trend. Compare and contrast the size of previous local divergences versus the leading divergence around the two horizontal red arrows.

 DIA 15 min trend, the leading negative signal started around the time of the reversal process, the igloo portion of the Igloo/Chimney price pattern.

IWM one minute shows how boring intraday trade has been. Yes there have been intraday steering divergences, but they have been very mellow.

 The more important chart, IWM 2 min trend

 IWM three minute trend since the early April forecast. The green arrows denote 3C confirming price action.

 On an intraday basis, I would like to see migration to charts like this five minute. Once this is leading negative on intraday basis I'll feel better about throwing out a lot of trade ideas what I suspect I'll be spending my weekend doing.

 I WM Long term 15 minute trend from a base to mark up and obviously intense distribution.

QQQ two minute leading negative . I've been watching this closely today however with Apple earnings on Monday and the ability to have a market headline out over the weekend, I suspect it won't turn today.

 QQQ five minutes the kind of intraday deterioration I'd like to see. I drew in a V shaped reversal, this is not a common occurrence unless there is a fundamental event that the market did not foresee. This also gives us more time to confirm and enter the appropriate trades. It is surprising how many individual assets will show the exact same signal as the broad market when we are at they are ready to turn such as the one we caught at the exact top on February 26 after the NFLX earnings-based gap. We set up the trade in what we were looking for a month in advance and had to wait a month for the exact signal but entered at exact high to the day.

 QQQ five minutes relative negative intraday

 SPY one minute intraday, again nothing exciting

 SPY 2 min with the yellow arrow acting as the trendline and yesterdays 11:51 AM break out with distribution ever sense

 SPY 3 min trend showing the four stages. Remember volatility precedes each new stage, the next is stage 4 decline and certainly have the volatility.