Monday, April 27, 2015

MCP Position/ Stop Update

Ever since MCP started its most recent move off-base lows toward the base's resistance, I've had the feeling that it would meet resistance and need to pullback and gather a head of steam before breaking out to stage two. Although I love MCP for a stage 2 breakout I still think probabilities are with a pullback.

 The daily chart of the base with resistance and the last two days including today have formed a tweezer top at the yellow trendline which is a sign of short term resistance
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 This five minute chart depicts the accumulation and bounce we expected, but to the far right is the tweezer top with a negative divergence at the second high.

 A more specific two minute chart shows the tweezer top and again distribution at the second high.

 However the larger issue has been the 60 minute chart which put in a large accumulation area in white", which is the second bottom of the "W" . 3C was in line with the uptrend until a small relative negative divergence at resistance. I was hoping to see this chart improve, but it has not and I don't believe it is a high probability that we get a stage two break out that holds with a 60 minute chart looking like this. A pullback at this point would do MCP a lot of good.

As for the trend channel, this is a daily trend channel which is what I hoped to see MCP, however the stop is very wide at $.70 or so and I believe that I would use a tighter Channel unless I viewed MCP as a long-term trend/investment position.

The 60 minute chart is a little tight for my Preferences but it is the best we have at this point and would preserve the most gains with a stop right around $.90

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