Futures are largely flat coming in to the cash open.
The overnight session and futures have seemingly been pretty focussed on Greece who did make their last IMF payment, but used the IMF's own money to do so (Greek reserves). Unless something happens and fast, the IMF sees June 5th as Greece's final day as it is already being reported that banks are low on ELA collateral, the ECB is likely to haircut the collateral they do have, in other words the financial sector and thus the country to get ugly fast the moment the ECB decides to reduce the value of Greek bond collateral.
Futures have largely been flat with the only risk asset to really reflect any of this being gold making a pop higher on fears, but still carrying a significant negative divergence near term and a strong positive one further out.
US Treasuries look like they will pull back as we expected late last week. This is the 30 year US Treasury futures.
Oil is vacillating in the area of support/resistance on renewed Saudi airstrikes in Yemen, but it looks like it is still coming down.
As for futures, they are flat in intraday charts this morning except NASDAQ which have a slight positive bias, but the larger timeframe charts are even more consistently negative. I still want to see the 10 min. charts of the averages break down and we need to be in the cash market for that to happen, but these 10 min Index futures charts are an example of multiple timeframes that are all falling apart as we saw late last week.
We may get some bouncing, we'll have to look at the cash open charts of the averages, but the larger theme above is weakness which is something I expected for this week as the reversal process finishes up and turns to the downside. The head fake move on the best head fake set-up I've seen in a long time is probably the largest open question, but again it's transitional, but it can be very useful so we'll look for signs of that becoming a reality or not. Some research I did over the weekend that shows few historical markets have been this flat for this long also shows that the majority saw major declines since the 1950's, but that doesn't account for the popularity of TA and the head fakes that came with that so it's still a question in my mind that needs answering.
I'll see you shortly.
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