Monday, May 18, 2015

TLT/Treasuries continue to Improve

The last look at TLT/Treasuries after this morning's gap down / pullback, the question was whether they'd start moving laterally (base building from the pullback today) or continue to move lower before doing the same.

Interestingly, the charts of TLT and those of the averages are nearly opposite in every way (as they have been trading together is spates recently. This doesn't only extend to the direction of price (Treasuries down/Averages up), but the divergences (averages negative intraday and building, treasuries positive intraday and building) a well as right to the same timeframe in which today's intraday divergence has reached (3 min charts so far).

You might already be thinking what I'm thinking, "ROTATION".

 TLT 1 min -note the lateral price trend intraday, this is what we were looking for earlier and is indicative of TLT building it's base/eventual buy point, right here.

Again there's migration like the averages, but instead of negative, it is positive.


TLT 3 min also positive.

It's interesting right now that they are acting like there's rotational movement out of risk and in to safety. I had thought that perhaps a breakout in the $USD for its counter trend move would drag both higher, but now I'm starting to wonder. The Legacy correlation with the $USD (normally) on $USD strength would be equity weakness.

I think this (breakout in $USD) will still give us some of the most useful information. For now though I'll continue to monitor the charts. In my view the divergence in TLT is NOT strong enough yet to open or fill out a long/call position, but it is sure moving that way.


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