Market Update

Since the pre-market when I posted that the gap down would see at least a fill as Index Futures on 1 min intraday charts moved more positive before the cash open, the averages during the cash market had been nearly perfectly in line, not showing much. However this recent move which in the SPX and  Dow could be considered a head fake move as they are in the right area, there has been a lot more 3C activity and a lot less volume and some very poor internals, what we still haven't seen is the $USD breakout, which is where I think ewe'll get our best information. Otherwise what is happening in the market right now actually looks quite sickly.

Don't misinterpret "head fake territory", it is simply above the well seen/known resistance area, a real head fake move is meant to do one thing and that is to create an emotional response so in terms of price percentage gain, it's really very little like a head fake move. However the initial information is certainly in line with market weakness.

 The SPY intraday, the point here is simply volume. Normally a break above resistance would send volume up at least at the initial break, it has done quite the opposite.

Also as a view of the internals, how many stocks are participating... The NYSE TICK.

 This is today only with a channel, but it barely makes +1000 which is no where near what you'd expect of a true breakout, it's in line with any old mediocre day and now declining.

 This is what I meant about the market averages earlier today, SPY intraday perfectly in line, not telling us much, but scroll ahead to present...

The same chart begins leading negative at the same place TICK breadth falls apart.

This divergence has migrated from the 1 min chart today alone to the 2 min above...

and the 3 min so far.

VXX on the other hand has seen positive migration from the 1 minute to this 3 min above and VIX is confirming.

 QQQ is also seeing the same type of divergence, again  out to the 3 min chart so far.

And the same for IWM.

This is the ES 1 min and the pre-market positive that led to the post warning the gap down wouldn't hold, we;ll it too has gone negative at the same place.

This is the 3 min Es chart, I don't consider this as telling as the SPY, QQQ & IWM migration, which is much more specific.

Someone is apparently busy selling price strength.

Still the main question from my perspective is what happens when the $USD breaks above it's base range? My gut feeling is that the market would try to follow, but it's a bit difficult to feel strong about that with such weak charts and volume thus far on a not so spectacular move above resistance of this huge range.