Wednesday, May 20, 2015

A.M. Update

Not a lot has changed overnight as far as some of the near term currency based expectations that have been initially developing that may have a corrective effect on a couple of positions like gold and oil. The broad market still looks very sickly with the same deterioration I posted again in last night's Daily Wrap as a few examples, but overnight Index futures were actually quite flat.

The only real news on a macro level was Japan's Q1 GDP beat of 2.4% better than consensus of 1.6 and last of 1.1, but it turns out that 80% of that print was due to inventory stocking, more pulling it forward (the ECB's May/June bond buying yesterday), so Q2 better find some snow in Japan for an excuse as to why GDP is so low.

 ES 1 min flat overnight ahead of today's F_O_M_C minutes...

As mentioned yesterday, 1 min gold futures with a positive divergence look like a corrective move is likely after yesterday's carnage in precious metals, but I believe there's a lot more downside to go.

The  Yen 1 min positive suggesting a modest correction in USD/JPY to the downnside

The Euro futures 1 min also suggesting a correction in EUR/USD to the upside

 3 min Gold futures also suggesting the probability of a corrective bounce or maybe gap fill, but the larger trend is still more downside. This would be very normal behavior.

And the 3 min chart of Euro futures also pointing to a corrective move in EUR/USD (up).

And the 5 min $USDX with a slight negative divergence that confirms/compliments the charts of the Yen and Euro.

However looking at the $USD likely correction within its counter trend bounce on a longer 30 min timeframe...
You can see it looks like it is already starting. Again I fully expect it to resume its counter trend bounce higher after a brief correction, but this is based on what we know BEFORE the minutes at 2 p.m., make no mistake, they'll be the fulcrum of the day, just remember to be wary of any F_E_D based knee jerk move, they are wrong a lot more than they are right.

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