Wednesday, May 20, 2015

USO Update

USO is seeing some end of day weakness, really I'm quite surprised that so many assets are so still.

In ant case, this is why I believe, "When in doubt", trade with the dominant trend " (3C trend) which is still down for USO despite short term indications.

I suspect this EOD weakness in oil is because the $USD has recovered intraday, but we still have those larger divergences in the $USD suggesting a corrective move lower so I'm not jumping to any conclusions, just glad I don't have to worry about it too much as I do prefer trading with the dominant trend even if it means a bit more patience.

As for the charts, the $USDX lost ground and has recovered a lot of it since the minutes, but those negative 7 min+ divergences are still in place so I wouldn't say the USO/Gold corrective move is a closed book yet.

 $USDX-1 min ...This is not a divergence, just pointing out the trend in price since the post minutes lows.

This $USDX 7 min chart is a divergence, this is the same large positive that has so far led to the largest counter tern bounce and biggest 2-day bounce since October of 2011. However the same negative divergence to the right that suggests a corrective move lower is still in place and not much has changed.

This is the 1 min Crude futures with some deterioration on a 1 min chart.

The same on a USO 2 min intraday chart today

And some migrating to the 3 min chart, likely because of the $USD gains in to the close.

The 5 min $USO positive divergence, short term bounce chart is still in place and until it sees deterioration, I have to assume, still active and waiting for its move.

Gold has had almost no movement whatsoever in the charts.

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