A.M. Update

It has been a fairly "new" new normal overnight session, with the Shanghai Comp. up, Greece still broken and the $USD making a new counter trend rally high.

As for yesterday's analysis on the market going in to today, I'd put the bulk of probabilities on a bounce in the equity markets with a smaller probability on a little more basing work that started yesterday and then a bounce in  the equity markets. The story ends the same way under either scenario,  that is DOWN. Just look at the Dow Industrials and then the Dow Transports, it's an old, familiar story that doesn't end well, just when and how remain to be seen.

Futures already have a decent start, but that doesn't mean they can't form a stronger base, although I kind of like the current narrative of a fast, strong move, but brief.

 $USD at a new counter trend rally high overnight.

 ES/SPX futures show no reason to suspect more base building on top of yesterday.

Although the 15 min SPY leaves a very narrow base and a gap up open, I see no current reason to think that it comes back down and forms a "W" base before running up, even though that would be the norm. Either way the story goes the same way, we'll know soon enough.