USO/Oil Update

It looks like our recent forecast of USO being up for a day or so which would have included yesterday and today would be defined as the, "or so".

As you know I'm expecting USO/ oil to come down not only on a short-term basis but on a swing basis.

After last night API data we received the EIA inventories at 10:30 this morning with a 2.2 mn bbl draw, along the lines of the API 2 mn bbl draw last night. However crude has had a different reaction this morning.

 This is the daily USO chart showing the forecasted move above base resistance with churning at the red arrows including our most recent short term forecast at the white arrow for a bounce of a "Day or so.".

 The longer term 60 minute chart has been in line and confirming Price action until the most recent run above resistance. It is been my opinion that USO cannot break out to stage to until charts like this 60 minute, which are very strong, are repaired and to do that USO needs to pullback.

 This is the 15 minute chart with the rally from the bottom of USO's base to the breakout above resistance, note the distribution in 3C right above resistance.

This chart too, has been telling us to expect a pullback.

 Very near term, it is this three minute chart that was behind the most recent "bounce" forecast of "A day or so".

And this is the intraday one minute chart showing distribution in USO right at the release of the EIA data after an initial knee-jerk move higher.

All positions are still intact including a USO Equity short.