Thursday, June 4, 2015

A.M. Update

Good morning.

If anyone is paying attention to the Chinese markets, there you'll see a truly volatile bit of trading with markets like the ShanghaiComp down over 5% over night and pushing back to close up and green +.76%. Some of the smaller markets are trading with more volatility as brokers increasingly pull back on margin, worried about the inevitable crash when EVERYONE is in the market.

However the biggest gamble right now seems to be in Greece where PM, Tsipras has rejected the Troika's final and best offer, who knows what tomorrow will look like with Greece in default.

As for now, US markets are seeing a bit of volatility too.

 S&P futures (ES) are lower overnight, taking back yesterday's small gains (red arrow is yesterday's cash close).

This 60 min chart of the $USDX shows it has lost more ground overnight.

And oil futures have lost more ground overnight, but note the small 1 min positive divergence, as I said last night I expect a small bounce in oil today.

And gold looks like it's getting ready for a near term reversal back to the upside.

The really interesting trade will be TLT/Treasuries as they continue to put in a reversal process. I still suspect we will see a monster counter trend rally there and likely have an entry in the next day or so.

We'll see what the cash market indicators look like shortly as I don't much trust the low (although higher than usual) overnight volume.

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