Rather than re-invent the wheel tonight, I'd point you to today's two posts, Message of the Market and Market Update and Leading Indicator Update. I don't think there's much I can add with what we have beyond these posts which look at the market in a different way, kind of the way astronomers know that there's a planet orbiting a star even though they can't see it because of the gravitational fluctuations observed over long period of time.
On a more visible wavelength, anyone noticing anything pattern-like in the averages' intraday trade this week? As in down in the morning, then up and peaking in the afternoon to head down in to the close? The close has always been the most important part of the day, it's just strange how every day this week has been a near carbon copy of the others. I'll say, the week has been torturously dull.
treasury Yields are getting a lot of attention as I showed earlier today in the Market Update and Leading Indicator Update today. However, I think the assumption about yields is very misguided, rather than reflecting something from the ECB, I believe they are showing Treasuries basing for the counter trend Treasury rally, which really starts to make sense if you put all of the pieces together from this afternoon's Market Update and Leading Indicator Update post which may be one of the most important of the day if not week.
30 year yields moderating, but still pointing to some market upside as the 30 year Treasury is engaged in the reversal process.
Near term this accomplishes the Igloo/Chimney head fake price pattern so long as yields keep acting as a leading indicator and I explained why I think there's a good chance they do for a while longer (see linked post above). Then they are in perfect position to drag stocks lower as a counter trend treasury rally starts, again I don't see this as a reversal of trend, just a CT rally, but strong at that.
Since our reversal process in the $USD, it has made another significant daily lower low today, moving closer to resuming the downtrend in effect before its counter trend bounce.
Daily $USDX second day down after the reversal process (4-days).
So far so good for our crude short/Put position despite the falling $USD.
While USO has aded some nice downside today since yesterday's add-to put position, now up +21%, this 15 min USO chart shows we still have significant downside room, thus the July expiration.However don't be surprised to see a little relief consolidation tomorrow.
Among Leading Indicators both of our Pro sentiment indicators which looked as if they might remain neutral for a short period while we wait for a head fake/chimney move, decided to sell off at the end of the day and closed near the daily lows.
Worse still, HYG continued selling off today in to the close.
HYG vs SPX. This can't be construed as positive for the market in any way and once again, my biggest fear is that the market comes down before we are able to establish good entries in longer term trend shorts such as NFLX, IYT, market averages, etc.
As for internals tonight, there's no Dominant Price/Volume Relationship for the 3rd time this week. The S&P sectors show 6 of 9 in the green, while Morningstar groups show 188 of 238 green, a bit more toward the overbought condition than previous days this week, but not an extreme that would move the market.
I don't expect things will be much different until/unless we get a sharp head fake move, but I have to wonder at what point traders flee a sinking ship with Greece Friday looking set to default, causing untold side-effects.
Index futures charts look very congested and dull, I suppose we'll just have to look for the set-ups and whether or not the market cooperates will be an added bonus.
If anything changes in futures tonight, I'll put out an update.
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