Today we have a worse signal than yesterday when we called an intraday top that some of you day traded (as well as an intraday low). Today we had no such intraday 3C low and the intraday top or 3C divergences look worse than yesterday's. Even TICK has fallen out of the channel, but there's just something here I don't trust.
It may be that I have an expectation and despite the fact that there was no support for today's modest gains, they were able to pump them out any way. This fits with what I think the highest near term probability is, so perhaps that's why I don't trust calling an intraday trade/short right now or even perhaps something bigger.
The charts always make it more clear...
SPY intraday 1 min today (red box on time axis is today).
IWM the same, as bad or worse looking than yesterday's call for a move to the downside.
QQQ with the same...
And even the NYSE TICK channel broke.
However as explained yesterday in several posts and a finer point in last night's Daily Wrap, my suspicion has been we get the Igloo/Chimney top,
in which case we'd expect to see VERY weak 3C charts as well as it is a head fake move. This Flag has been the focal point for me in launching that moove, a break above the upper trendily which is where we are.
To fulfill the entire move, price needs to go in to the chimney area and the charts should remain very weak as they are now.
Perhaps it's because I think this is the most likely scenario.
Going through Index futures, they have fallen off a cliff which I have shown yesterday, 30 min, 60 min and 4 hour. The market is ready for a large, real drop (not a corrective move), those charts are reflecting it. Something just doesn't feel right near term in calling for a downside move intraday like yesterday on these negative charts. I get this feeling they are suppose to finish this chimney.
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