$USD About to Change Everything

It's difficult immediately to say which assets will be effected first and which will escape the move for a brief period and how long that might be. However this tells us about the trajectory of the carry trade and the advancing losses, that will be evident in the $USD's price action today and how sharp it is. Furthermore this will change June Rate Hike expectations as a "Strong $USD" has been one of the things the F_E_D has been complaining about as a block to raising rates, it just so happens that by chance, each time they've met, the $USD was in a moment of temporary strength like this last counter trend rally. With a clearly weaker $USD, that won't be an excuse used to avoid hiking rates at the June meeting.

One last thing on the nature of counter trend rallies, by definition they occur in an established downtrend, that's the only way a rally can exist and also be counter trend. As I have said for years, "these are some of the strongest rallies you'll see in any kind of market, which is why bear markets are so interesting to trade as they fall apart about 4 times faster than they build and their counter trend relief rallies are some of the funnest, most profitable trading you'll see.

The $USD's counter trend rally only had 7-days of actual rally that ended last week, however this was the strongest 7-day move in the $USD since 2008!

Now the charts as I suspect you are about to see how fast a carry trade at 300:1 leverage will send prices lower not only in the $USD, but carry trade financed assets...

 The intraday 1 min $USDX chart in line on the downside. I've been saying this move was over since last week and especially last night, it just needed to finish its reversal process which is simply the normal reversal of an asset, rather than the instant reversal many traders assume.

The 15 min $USDX chart with a clear leading negative divergence sending prices lower, but we are just getting started.

On a 60 min charts the area that spans the yellow arrow is the 7-day counter trend rally, the rest of the time (5 days) is the reversal process at the yellow rounding arrows. That decline in price to the far right is price, not a red arrow.

And on a daily chart as shown last night, the 4-days (now 5) of reversal process with long upper wicks and resistance as a rounding top took over. Today's daily candle is the long red one to the far right. Soon the $USD will re-enter its downtrend and make a new lower low.