Early Indications

So far this market has been pretty predictable, I'm talking about the gap fill attempt which is still ongoing in most of the averages, the IWM filled the gap, but the Russell 2000 did not. Go figure!

Years ago before HFT's dominated the market, we saw gaps unfilled and they were extremely useful in analysis , especially understanding where you were in a market's cycle, they made for excellent transition points from stage to stage, but since HFT's they have been ruthless about filling gaps...unfortunately.

While it's a bit early to see much on some of the more important charts, I thought I'd post a few things I noticed, one is the 30 year yield which has been acting as a Leading Indicator like a magnet.

 Remember yesterday the 30 year yield dropped at the F_O_M_C (red vs the SPX in green), well today it dropped more and as a Leading Indicator, it tends to act like a magnet for equities.

 Look which lever they activated this morning to try and help with the gap fill, that's HYG in red leading the SPY in green.

As for the USD/JPY, it remains in an overall supportive position...

 However, unlike yesterday, the $USD and Yen are starting to give signals again and they are not good for the USD/JPY which has been acting like an engine for the bounce.

This is a 5 min chart of the USD/JPY in purple and ES in candlesticks, note how the FX pair not only gave us advance notice last week of a bounce this week, but also led it. I'm not so sure it's going to hold out for much longer.

The $USDX is giving some early, but definitive negative signals which would pull USD/JPY downward.

Also the Yen futures are giving early 1 min positive signals which would also pull the FX pair downward and remove a major source of support for the market's bounce this week.

I noticed this in a quick look at how the gap fills were going,;this is the daily chart of the SPY and while it's very early in the day and a lot can still happen, this would be a strong 2-canfdle reversal pattern (down) called a Harami or as the Japanese call it, "Mother with baby", or as we call it in the West (sort of) an "Inside Day".

In any case, it will be interesting to see if that holds through the close.