Index Futures

I'll have to abbreviate this post, but to give you a quick idea of what has been important, it's not so much the longer term underlying trends, we've known since before this bounce began that they'd see distribution, that's why it was called a "Risk Off" bounce before it even began as it was obvious that pros would be selling in to price strength.

We can look at longer term 3C charts for the trend of the overall market such as a longer term chart like...

 This Dow Futures 60 min chart shows the most recent bounce to the right and the leading negative divergence in to that bounce, this is by far the highest probability resolution to our bounce.

 TF or Russell Futures have been among my favorite because of how bad they look such as this 60 min chart at a new leading negative low below or just about below the area where the bounce's base first started putting itself together.

 I have said many times that the Dow futures and charts seem to look like some of the worst which is surprising as large caps usually hold up the best and have the best relative performance even in an all out bear market, that hasn't been the case so much as of late.

 In the intermediate term charts which are more than enough to guide us for a bounce, the Russell 2000 15 min chart has enough detail to show the bounce//base's accumulation and the reversal process as well as a deep leading negative divergence. In this context, I think you can understand why I'd be interested in selling short a short term/intraday ounce in the IWM as it wouldn't have any effect on this chart which is really screaming out the highest probability resolution or path of least resistance (or in this case maybe the path of least support).

 The more liquid Es/SPX 15 min chart shows the same thing, the same base for the bounce to the left, the same bounce and leading negative divergence.

 Yet again it's the Dow and Russell futures that really look the worst- 15 min YM.

 As the 10 min charts have been divergent and ugly, it has really been about the timing 5 min charts which have become sort of a standard for me to enter any trade as they tend to hold up much better overnight and are fickle for a timing hart. Once they start giving a strong signal, I feel very confident in the timing of a move, the longer term charts are definitely a stronger signal, but not as detailed and don't give us the same information as far as timing.

 TF is the only one that hasn't reached the 5 min chart and I believe that's because of Friday's positive divergence as they were the worst relative performer, but I don't think it would take more than a few hours for them to be onboard so at this point I feel we are very close if not there.

 ES 5 min is divergent on the 5 min chart.

 As is NQ

 And YM.

Even the VIX futures which I covered a bit in the last post have their timing divergence, positive as they trade opposite the market.

It's the intraday charts that are starting to move faster with 5 min charts giving signals that has me more concerned now with the market and pivot than being able to share all of the charts of the 100 Futures I've been through with great confirmation in Currencies/carry trades.

 ES intraday

Dow Futures intraday.

So I'm going to make one more sweep and try to concentrate the rest of the day on positions.