Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators are incredibly flat.

Here are just a couple of examples which are right in line with underlying trade today.

 HYG High nYield Corp. Credit (blue) vs the SPX. This is one of the go to levers they pull to ramp the market, we have seen recent divergences suggesting a bounce is in the cards such as...

3 min HYG positive divergence set up for a bounce cycle.

However intraday, very little movement in HYG itself and just as much in HY Credit.
 Absolutely flat intraday vs the SPX and remember this is the first time it has led to the upside since May coming in to this week.

HY Credit positive divgerence for the first time since May, but totally flat today.

 Our Pro sentiment has a slight positive, but nothing like the last week or so, also pointing to a bounce,

Pro sentiment positive coming in to this week with deterioration since yesterday, still roughly positive though.

This makes perfect sense with the lack of any movement in the 3C charts which has reflected the lack of intraday movement in the market.

A head fake below yesterday's lows could put together some accumulation, I'll be watching for it, otherwise I'll likely be looking at closing UVXY short and just let the core shorts take over. More as it comes available.

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