Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Market Update:Pateince

I don't keep putting out multiple market updates because something is happening in the market, I keep putting them out as a reminder that not much is happening. This is not the time to try to be a hero, to try to pick the direction of the market (gamble), it's a time for patience until the market tells us what the highest probabilities are.

So again as a reminder, it was the intraday charts that should have put in strong positive divergence at yesterday's head fake move below the SPX's 200 dma before moving higher, those charts/divergences are still missing, we have confirmation of a pretty flat market since the gap down, not a high probability scenario for nearly any stock as mist will take their directional cue from the market averages.
 SPY 1 min intraday with yesterday's closing negative divergence and today's in line in a flat/trendless market since the gap down.

 QQQ 2 min intraday showing slight accumulation at yesterday's intraday lows, a negative divergence in to the afternoon/close and in line so far this morning in a flat, trendies environment.

 The 1 min /IWM shows largely the same with a little more excitement this morning, but it hasn't been strong enough to migrate even to the 2 min chart...

IWM 2 min not only in line at best this morning, but perhaps a little negative intraday.

As for futures, there was some decent movement and 3C calls overnight, but since the 9:30 cash market open...
 ES / SPX E-mini futures showing overnight divergences and the inline status just like the averages above since the cash market opened.

NQ 1 min / NASDAQ 100 futures showing the same thing, perfectly in line since the cash open.

And Tf/Russell 2000 futures 1 min showing the exact same thing. Every major market average/
Index future is telling us to hold and be patient. We've seen this before and in retrospect have always been glad we stayed patient  This won't last for long, but while it does, there are no probabilities on your side and we don't take trades without strong objective evidence pointing to a high probability/low risk/excellent timed trade, not just probabilities which we don't even have this morning.

I'd say don't be a hero, don't try to make something happen. We'll have advance notice when the market reveals its message. Perhaps at the moment the market is simply unsure of what it wants to do.

This doesn't change the big picture and all core shorts/trend shorts remain in play.
The big picture is very much a high probability, SPY daily 3C chart deeply leading negative on one of the strongest timeframes/underlying flow we use.

Any questions about that chart?

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