Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Levers

In last night's Daily Wrap I said,

"Well, I'll let the market worry about how it will get through the overnight session and stick to the objective evidence which is we expected a bounce, we have a bounce, there's still room for more upside, but it's being sold in to fairly heavily so I don't expect it to last too much longer."

There's still gas in the tank for the major averages as they aggressively accumulated yesterday morning's early downside slide, but since then they have also been selling fairly heavy in to higher prices. As I said yesterday and last night, I think there's still upside room , at least there's gas in the tank for one as you'll see in the next post, but I don't expect it to last too long at the rate they have been selling in o this counter trend bounce.

As for the most recent move to the upside, I figured I'd show you quickly how it was done. Remember I said I don't see the kind of divergences in $USD or JPY Futures that I did late last week that lifted the pair Monday and the market with it so I wasn't sure what lever they might be able to use and as of last night's daily wrap above, I wasn't going to worry about it.

Here are the levers...
 ES futures 1 min moving up just now.

The $USD wasn't and isn't showing a positive divergence that would move the USD/JPY higher, it's roughly moving sideways with no divergence.

However, even though the Yen has a small 1 min positive that should grow in to a larger divergence, it did make a move lower in the red box. This in turn changed the stability between the two pairs and....
 Sent USD/JPY higher. Es and the market followed, but that wasn't all.


In addition, I found at least 1 other lever, although not extremely strong and only a 1 min chart this morning to the far right, HYG is leading the market higher or was as of this capture.

I left the IWM $122 calls position open and they are just at breakeven now. I'll show you the bigger picture which is what I was working on as this move started, there is still gas in the tank for such a move, but they have been selling aggressively in to higher prices.

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