I'm not biting on the a.m. action ...yet, but I think it may be setting up a larger base than simply yesterday's Morning Star reversal candles, which is not unusual, if we continued basing through the day, there are a lot of 2-day candlestick reversal price pattern. Or perhaps we see a move later in the day. In any case vey near term/intraday, this is the most recent capture and it looks like we'll be coming down a bit intraday from here.
This is the intraday 1 min IWM, it looks like it will be coming down intraday as of this capture.
SPY 1 min intraday is starting t put in a similar intraday divergence.
And the Q's with several divergences since the cash open intraday are not quite negative here, but I suspect they follow the IWM/SPY a bit lower
You can keep an eye on the 1 min NYSE TICK, it should break this channel to the downside and then we should see some additional downside in the market intraday from these levels. I'm not saying that we'll make a new intraday low, I just think it's likely we pullback from here.
However price is always deceiving so what is it up to? You know we have been looking for a bounce and that was the Week Ahead forecast from Friday, the early part of the week we should be putting together the base needed to bounce in the early part of the week.
Don't forget that TODAY is the first day of the July F_O_M_C meeting, tomorrow is the policy announcement which makes some of the charts I'm going to show you interesting considering... well considering there have been leaks there before.
What a pullback intraday would do on this wider view of a QQQ 3 min chart is put in a wider reversal process/base for a bounce as you see with a leading positive 3 min divergence.
This is what I'm waiting on and watching.
Index futures confirmation would be important as well, I don't think we have very good confirmation there yet, but in the next post since I think we I [probably have the time, I'm going to put out several different timeframes so you can see multiple timeframe/multiple asset analysis and get a feel for the market here. I'd urge you to keep in mind tomorrow at 2 pm we have the F_O_M_C policy statement, widely expected to hike in September so a building divergence above and beyond yesterday/Friday afternoon just before the F_O_M_C and the F_E_D knee jerk reaction we typically see at F_E_D related events, is more than a little interesting to me.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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