Early Update

That was one interesting open. We've seen some pretty aggressive selling in to price strength this year, but that really looked nasty.

Really though, it's sort of almost the opposite of yesterday on the TICK...

The opening print was not quite as extreme as yesterday's negative opening print at -1800, but today was extreme at almost +1500 and then down to -1000 at the lows.

The first chart of USD/JPY I posted this morning had a negative divergence in it if you go back and look,

 USD/JPY 1 min negative divergence in pre-market.

However, the component currency futures were in line...

 $USDX 1 min in line without the divergence USD/JPY was showing, but dumped enough on the open to send the FX pair and the averages down with it, although they were diverging down from the carry pair in pre-open if you look again at this morning's first post with USD/JPY vs ES.

The Yen futures (1 min) were also in line pre-market and not divergent and in fact never went positive, but the bounce in the Yen combined with the drop in the $USD was enough to send USD/JPY and the averages lower on the open.

It's almost as if someone knew the USD/JPY would come under selling, perhaps someone wanting to get in and not miss the bus because of a gap, any way that was my initial impression.

Yesterday when I posted, Intraday Update and Possible Trade Plan/Idea I posted some conditions that would make me consider adding to the speculative size IWM call from Friday, which came later in the day, but still not lifting the position to a full size position, Trade Idea:IWM Calls (SPECULATIVE). In the last linked post, I made clear I was leaving room for a possible head fake scenario.

I'm really wondering if this is not it.

This IWM chart's trendily is from yesterday, it was a head fake move below the trendily which would be where I'd consider adding the last portion of IWM calls (really it doesn't have to be IWM specifically, the market largely moves together, it's just the one I like the best).

The volume looks right for a head fake move, the purpose of which is to grab shares on the cheap and in supply so they don't move the market against accumulating such a large position, but as a;ways the move needs to be confirmed as a head fake move first which is much more important on downside breaks than upside breaks as the downside breaks have a lot more chance of being the real thing.

So that's what I'm doing now, looking for solid , objective evidence this is the head fake move I mentioned yesterday that I was leaving room for in the IWM call position.

If I do believe it's a head fake as I was hoping we'd see yesterday and decide to add to the final portion of the IWM call position, I'll probably use a longer 8/21 expiration.