The Miners Trading System

Yesterday we had a buy on today's open (DUST) signal in system 1. Tonight both systems are long DUSt, if you are following the trading system rules for system #2, you would purchase DUST on the open tomorrow at market open. Buying on the open is important, much of the gains come on a closing basis.

All positions in NUGT would have already been stopped out.

I noticed some problems with DUST today and the close was poor, forming a bearish Shooting Star candle on high volume, which in this case would be indicative of churning, also bearish.

 The 5 min chart above was showing a negative divergence at the morning highs, there was some improvement late in the day.

The 1 min chart showed very good improvement very late in the day today.

You'll have to make the decision, remember there's a 3% stop-loss from the opening price. For today's system 1 trade that stop-loss is $34.97.

The long term 60 min chart still looks very bullish.

There is a loose correlation to gold with the miners and GLD did show an impressive 10 min chart today, which would historically not be good for DUST as far as the loose correlation goes.

GLD 10 min 3C chart.

QE For Congress?

I will have my nightly update as well as the miners signal a little later tonight, I'm going to decompress and have dinner with my family and then look at the market with a fresh pair of eyes.

In the mean time, here's an interesting story that may have some influence in some of the market action we are seeing now. The Fed to the rescue?

A QUICK LOOK AT LEVERAGED ETFS

 FAS Bull Financials

 FAZ Bear Financials

 QID Short the Q's

 QLD Long the Q's

 SRTY Short the R2k 15 min

 SRTY Short the R2k 5 min

 URTY Long the R2k 15 min

URTY Long the R2k 5 min

Kind of interesting.

SPY Inverse H&S

Earlier I posted what looks like an inverse head and shoulders in the SPY and asked the question, "How is Wall Street going to game such an obvious pattern?"

In a few subsequent emails with members I and they pretty much agreed there's only 1 way and that way is likely to give me an ulcer, but it's too obvious on the charts, Wall Street never lets patterns like that do what the Technical analysis books say they should do and retail traders never adapt to that fact.

So we are seeing the conclusion I came to-they have to shake it out to the downside, which certainly contributes to me getting an ulcer!

And what went from an Inverse H&S is now looking like a more random and less bullish pattern-operation shakeout a success.

However, I still can't ignore these charts.

 1 min.

 5 min.

15 min.

Something seems to clearly be going on under the surface here.

Sector Rotation

First is the intraday, then hourly and then the daily since May 1st.

 Today Financials saw a jump as well as Health Care, Basic Materials and Tech . Industrials and Utilities are lagging.

 Click on the chart for a larger view.

AAPL Update

In my last AAPL Update today I saw a negative 1 min divergence and some positive longer term charts, the 1 min divergence lasted longer then expected, but finally played out.

 Here's the break of intraday support and all of the stop-losses and algos kicking in.

 Here's the 1 min negative divergence referred to earlier, apparently distribution lasted longer then I thought it would.

However, the 15 min chart is in a leading positive divergence right now, I suspect this chart will look a bit better later today as it is probable shares were just picked up on the break of resistance.

Market Update

Ooohh, I really hate these transient moments in the market and the "going out on a limb" posts, but it comes with the job and I will never withhold information because I'm afraid of being wrong, I owe you guys the fact of what I see. Besides, when I get those emails about the great trades you all have made, it makes it all worthwhile.

So here goes...

 The DIA has been the laggard, but the 3C version used for the DIA is also one of the slower to react and is better for longer term in general. So here's a 10 min positive/leading divergence formed today in the DIA.

 Surprisingly, here's a 30 min relative divergence yesterday and leading today-surprising because this timeframe usually takes days to move like this.

 The IWM 15 min in leading positive position, again surprising to see in a single day.

 And once again, the IWM 40 min, you can see the last time it went positive into a falling market around the 18th and the top, now looks similar to the 18th.

 The SPY  1 min just went the total opposite direction of the market.

 SPY 5 min is holding together well in leading position

And the SPY 15 min...

Those are the charts...

DUST Update

 The 60 min DUST chart-I like-good potential for DUST.

 Today's 5 min chart, I'm not very keen on.

The 1 min chart appears as if the intraday pullback is over.

DUST generally moves the opposite of the market, f yesterday was s short term game changer tactically speaking-NOT strategically, then a market rally would likely send DUST lower until it ends.

Therefore, you may want to consider using any intraday strength today to take partial profits, or perhaps just exit the trade with a nice 8% 2-day profit. Things are very transient right now and I prefer to commit money to sure things, the 5 min chart looking the way it does has me thinking these are not the odds I like to commit money to.

Possible Inverse H&S-SPY

This is a 5 min 3C chart with what could be a possible inverse H&S reversal. 3C looks pretty good for the pattern, I'm just trying to imagine how it would be gamed as it is probably pretty evident to most technical traders at this point.

Market Update

 Intraday pullback in the IWM, it is starting to build a positive divergence-

 The IWM 5 min chart looks very strong short term.

 Here's the same pullback and now positive divergence building in the SPY

As you can see, the pullback did no damage to the 5 min chart which is leading.

I would expect an intraday move up shortly.