Short Squeeze?

The lack of pullbacks looks like a short squeeze, see yesterday's and what looks like one today. This would in part explain the 3C negative divergence as Wall Street (as I showed in an earlier chart) is already at a profit, so supply in the way of shorts covering s exactly what they need to sell their long positions. I may take a little profit off the table here, maybe 25%.

The Charts

 DIA 1 min

 QQQ 1 min

SPY 1 min.

If these don't pullback as I would expect, the we have most likely started the distribution phase already, remember I said I thought this would be a short move. We'll se soon enough.

Market Update...

I'm not buying it-figuratively.

For whatever reason Blogger is really slow uploading harts, but the move up out of the flag is negative on the 1 min charts, this may be part of the head fake. I expect this move most likely won't last in the short run.

This is what I really went to the Drudge Report for

Read this story from the FT about abuses being committed by Egypt's "transitional ruling authority"

Then if you have the time or inclination, go to the search box at the Wolf on Wall Street main site, it is in the upper top left corner.

Type in "Mubarak" or "Egypt" and read the analysis from back during the uprising. It basically said that Egypt has been ruled by the military since Nasser, they chose the president from their own inner circle and they were going to throw Mubarak out of power because he was going to side step them and set his son up to replace him, the uprising just gave them cover and ultimately, it WAS the military that removed him.

The promises of free elections in 6 months I said were a total farce, that the military would never give up power, which will precipitate another crisis in Egypt when citizens understand they were lied to, even though they hold the military in high esteem. In the FT article, you can see the military is already making moves to break that promise.

If you think the Arab Spring was an event that has passed, think again. As I pointed out, in Iraq and Afghanistan, years later, there's no credible government, and when these MENA regimes fall and are replaced by anarchy and unsavory types, the middle east and Africa will be changed forever and not in a positive way.

This WILL have an effect on oil and likely world markets.

A Little Boredom relief...

This picture was on the Drudge Report with the headline, "Poverty Soars"

Now this is not comic relief, I'm not even kidding when I say this. I DO NOT feed my dog regular store bought dog food, if you look in to the ingredients, especially anything that says, "meal" behind it like chicken meal or beef meal, etc, you would never feed it to your dogs either. Last night I made my dog's dinner for the week:  Zucchini, Carrots, Apples, Broccoli, Green Peas, Eggs, Sweat Potato, PlainYogurt, Cottage Cheese, and diced up beef along with Vitamin E, C, Omega 3 fish oil, Flax Seed Oil, Milk Thistle and Selenium (you have to be careful how much Selenium you give them). I kid you not, it looked EXACTLY like what the President is serving.

And from a background running a Cafe, with my food handlers and manger's license, where are your hats and hair nets?

The NYSE TICK Chart

3C even works on the TICK hart to some degree, it's showing a 12 p.m. positive divergence which would be positive for equities. Whether this is part of a head fake still or a real move up, remains to be seen. 3C is still in line with price.

Market Update...

I always am nervous during a dull market, too many experiences with them I guess.

Any way, let take a look at the continuing bull flag.

 It almost seems like Wall Street is attempting to entice longs to jump in on this bull flag, I would guess once they do, they'll take price below the flag, take the long's shares and send prices higher or some variation of that.

As you can see, 3C is still in line with the bull flag, no hints of accumulation or distribution, just confirming the price action.

Market Update...

So far there's only the  1 min negative divergence I mentioned earlier that I said would bring a pullback/consolidation.

Here's what to watch for...

There's a bull flag now that is getting more noticeable/obvious, if Wall Street starts seeing buy orders coming in from retail , as retail expects a bull flag to resolve to the upside, they may very well try to shake out those longs with a drop out of and below the flag, after that, the market should start moving up again, it all depends on whether this pattern has attracted enough interest from retail to make it worthwhile.

This would be another example of how Technical Analysis is used against technical traders.

Cycle levels

Just about every stock and other trading instrument runs n a 4 stage cycle, whether you are looking a a monthly chart or a 1 min chart, these cycles are everywhere. Stage 1) Accumulation / Stage 2) Mark up or rally Stage / 3) Distribution Stage /  4) Decline.


Lets take a loon at our most recent cycle starting yesterday.

The white box is where we observed accumulation on Friday and Monday and the line through it is what I would guess to be the average position price. The red box is where most of us bought yesterday.

This was Stage 1 accumulation. We are now in stage 2 mark up/rally. During stage 3, Wall Street will start distributing their shares in to higher or flat prices, that's when we want to be selling as well, after that, we can probably catch a few short trades for Stage 4-decline.

To give you some idea of the move I expect (roughly)...

This chart compares the 3C accumulation of the last move to this one, roughly the same. The last move spent a day in accumulation, then gapped higher and had one more day of gains, but price lost momentum as it was under distribution. So something along the line of 2 days or so I would think.

Market Update

It's still early, but it looks like a small intraday consolidation/correction is coming soon.

SPY 1 min-all of the other averages look the same on the 1 min chart as well.