GOOG Quick Update

GOOG is not exactly where I want it to be, but it is making a lot of progress in getting there with the right signals.

Another example of why I'm not loading up here.

AAPL Update

OK, lots of emails about AAPL, so lets just look, but the bottom line is, If AAPL had a 3X leveraged short/bear ETF, I'd buy it. As for shorting the stock, I don't see the profit potential as being high enough, as for buying puts, I don't see the probabilities of the trade as being high enough for that kind of risk.

I see AAPL as also (much like GLD and SLV) as being in a bear market rally, these are sharp/strong rallies, they obviously have to be to get anyone interested after a 300+ point decline.

As for not backing up the truck, AAPL is just ANOTHER one of the pieces of the puzzle that suggests we are not there yet as AAPL does look like it will go higher before this is all said and done.

 1 min intraday is obviously in a negative divergence, AAPL is coming down in the near term.

 The negative divergence stretches to about the 10 min chart.

After that, the influential 15 min is extremely strong still, this is one of the reasons I think AAPL has more upside.

This is also why I don't think a Put is a high probability, low risk, good set up. Will it likely be profitable? Yes, is it the kind of high probability, low risk  and strong set up that we want when taking on that leverage? No.

Update

 CONTEXT has been going deeper in to the negative for ES since about the open.

The SPY Arbitrage. levers and when they don't need them anymore as retail will take over at a breakout move, allowing smart money to sell/short to retail and usually with good demand on the breakout move.

As for futures, ugly...

 ES intraday has shown distribution all day

NQ/NASDAQ futures show very heavy intraday distribution just about since the US open

In Currencies, the $USD positive intraday divergence is now moving positive, finally catching up to the 15 min, the 1 min needs to migrate to the 5 min.

The Euro 1 min is still flat intraday (3C), but the 5 min looks really bad.

The intraday $AUD is going negative, the 5 min is negative, 15 min is in line, this is part of the reason I'm not LOADING up the truck so it's flowing over with short positions, I still think according to currencies and leading indicators that we get one more chance at better probabilities.

The Yen positives are still as strong as they were earlier.

Obviously the probabilities are with Precious metals pulling back, but I don't see it as a High Probability trade and there's the difference, so AGQ stays put.

I'm going to take a look around and see if anything else looks interesting.

At this point with the market backing off in to an afternoon move, I'm not a huge fan of opening puts now, we wanted to do that in to rising prices, however I still think that 3X leveraged ETFs are worthwhile here, my favorite would be SRTY for the IWM, then SPXU for the SPY and SQQQ for the Q's (all short).

I think FAZ and UVXY long are still playable, especially FAZ.

Intraday and some longer term Leading Indicators Shaping Up

Meaning they are going in a way that is negative for the market. I wanted to make sure with this Put exposure, I feel confident. If I can get some charts out before the close I will.

SLV/ AGQ Long

I just looked at GLD and SLV, this isn't long term analysis of GLD or Silver like last night's post. I saw probabilities in GLD, but not high probabilities and a really nice set up. SLV had better probabilities and a slightly better set up.

I do not think I would use options for this trade (pullback move-perhaops a gap fill) and the AGQ long leveraged position was chosen exactly for this reason, it has some leverage, but can withstand some pullbacks without serious draw down, allowing us to capture most of the trend. Options do have their place, but that's in Very high probability trades with set ups with the trade coming to us.

Although I think a SLV pullback is high probability, I don't think it's worth messing around with the AGQ long that is already about 8% in the green.


SLV Charts

 2 min intraday is negative here, there is a bit of a gap below and the market has been relentless in filling gaps since thee rise of HFTs.

5 min SLV also negative and looks like it will fill the gap, I think in that area either AGQ long will be a nice new long position and possible some calls.

 SLV 15 min is negative, but not extremely bad/leading.

The important chart is the trend for now-note the distribution and the head fake move in yellow before the reversal, similar to what is going on today in the market and then the leading positive divergence, I suspect this may be part of a counter trend BEAR rally, but these are the strongest. I see no reason to close AGQ at this time.

SPY 5/18 (monthly) $160 Put

IWM 5/18 (monthly) $95 Put

Adding to both IWM and SPY Puts. ***

Except I'm going to add to them with longer expirations and in the money.

Update

I was thinking we were going to see a small interruption in this uptrend before it continues, now I am wondering if we see that at all or we just see this trend finish up, there are a lot of assets to look at, but I think it's very plausible.

SPY...

 SPY 1 min has shown distribution in to higher prices all day, there's a very obvious level traders will be watching that I just posted for the SPX/SPY.

 SPY 15 leading negative right here which started last week, that seems a little long for a quick pullback.

30 min is leading negative in a very big way.

I'm going to check leading indicators again, this may be why some of the currencies that should be moving and have the 5 min and longer strong divergences, seem hung up today on the 1 min charts like a record player skipping at the same spot over and over.

Not changing any positions, may add to some.

Yen Crosses

I think some of the Yen pair like AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY are going to see downside very soon, this is not market supportive.

Remember the 2-part Yen article about 4 weekends ago (I spent about 10 hours on it), well the conclusions I came to look like they are coming to pass, the break out of the Yen will almost certainly correspond with a very nasty patch in the stock market.

Here are a few Yen charts...

 Yen 1 min intraday, I think this alone will do some damage to the market, the positive divergence suggests the Yen is about to make a push higher, it will probably correspond with an afternoon break in the market.

Yen 5 min which is a more serious timeframe, is also in a strong positive divergence and has some fuel in the tank now, but this gets much worse.

The 15 min chart is just at a normal correction and ready to resume its move higher, the 1 and 5 min charts are the charts that will move it higher and the divergence will almost certainly migrate across the 15 min, but the positive is already there, I just don't have enough history to show you the entire thing.

 Yen 60 min is a VERY serious timeframe, it shows the strong distribution just before the BOJ new QE policy was announced, that was about 8 hours of distribution before the announcement and Yen crash. The positive divergence at this rounding bottom is what I was thinking we would see when I wrote that weekend special, "Currency Crisis", so far everything I expected to happen has happened. It looks like the BOJ may have lost control.

 Look at the size of the leading positive divergence on the 4 hour chart of the Yen

This Daily chart is EXTREMELY strong underlying flows of money, don't let the smaller divergences fool you.they represent huge flows. There's not a single positive divergence in the entire Yen downtrend sionce October of last year just as the carry trades were being put on for the Nov., 16th cycle low. Now we have a positive divergence in the trend and right where the BOJ policy announcement was. The sharp fall in price is like capitulation, all weak hands were washed out, accumulation started the next day and has continued ever since. This reversal in the Yen will have far reaching effects on all kinds of assets and few stock traders will have little if any idea what is really moving the market.