Monday, April 29, 2013

Update

 CONTEXT has been going deeper in to the negative for ES since about the open.

The SPY Arbitrage. levers and when they don't need them anymore as retail will take over at a breakout move, allowing smart money to sell/short to retail and usually with good demand on the breakout move.

As for futures, ugly...
 ES intraday has shown distribution all day

NQ/NASDAQ futures show very heavy intraday distribution just about since the US open

In Currencies, the $USD positive intraday divergence is now moving positive, finally catching up to the 15 min, the 1 min needs to migrate to the 5 min.

The Euro 1 min is still flat intraday (3C), but the 5 min looks really bad.

The intraday $AUD is going negative, the 5 min is negative, 15 min is in line, this is part of the reason I'm not LOADING up the truck so it's flowing over with short positions, I still think according to currencies and leading indicators that we get one more chance at better probabilities.

The Yen positives are still as strong as they were earlier.

Obviously the probabilities are with Precious metals pulling back, but I don't see it as a High Probability trade and there's the difference, so AGQ stays put.

I'm going to take a look around and see if anything else looks interesting.

At this point with the market backing off in to an afternoon move, I'm not a huge fan of opening puts now, we wanted to do that in to rising prices, however I still think that 3X leveraged ETFs are worthwhile here, my favorite would be SRTY for the IWM, then SPXU for the SPY and SQQQ for the Q's (all short).

I think FAZ and UVXY long are still playable, especially FAZ.

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