Going with AGQ Long Equity for a Silver Play

I'm not convinced on the short term SLV charts to take on the leverage of an options play, but this 15 min SLV chart has me pretty confident of SLV making a move higher, AGQ has 2x leverage, but any draw-down waiting for the move to unfold is not going to be significant and I can ride it out in AGQ whereas an options position would be a nightmare.

The chart...

I'll probably take about 2/3rds a normal size position, leaving some room to add and some room for drawdown if it comes. That's a 15 min chart and the kind of divergence I don't ignore-ever!

HYG Charts

Remember that HYG is a necessary component in the SPY arbitrage to support the market, HYG up with VXX and TLT down is a positive SPY arbitrage the algos will buy.

Since HYG doesn't have the kind of beta necessary for me to take the chance, I need leverage, for institutional money they have huge leverage on HYG and it is huge liquidity. Since 2008 banks have been selling their credit exposure so for any decent size hedge fund looking to put on a credit position with some diversification, it's almost impossible to find the assets as the banks have been wiping them off their books, along comes HYG, the institutional trader's "Risk on" position of choice and a very easy way to express a position in credit with some diversification in Corp. Credit without looking for enough bonds with 10 different corporations and HYG is SUPER liquid.

I entered now because we are close to the hour when the market moves outside the op-ex pin with most contracts closed and HYG's range has been attractive, I'd rather buy on a break below that range, but I don't have the time-maybe I can add.

 2 min- this is enough to keep this range in place

5 min positive looks like heavier flows and I doubt they are retail

15 min again, same thing, but the longer charts or even these show HYG is damaged beyond repair, this is a fast bounce trade, hit and run, in and out.

Entering HYG June $94 Calls- They're about $.99

Charts coming

Entering Spec-Size GOOG June $870 Calls

This is for a bounce trade only, as soon as GOOG makes any higher highs, I'd be using that strength to add to the Equity short for the big picture and perhaps a put position for the shorter term view.

XOM

We also entered/added to XOM short a few days ago at the top, I think it too will bounce, I'd like to add more if I have room on any strength, once again this is a position I'd feel comfortable as a new position adding maybe 1/3 of the intended size as it is a strong bounce candidate, on price strength, 3C weakness I'd add the rest of the position. Longer term charts suggest XOM has significant downside.

TJX Core Equity Short

I'll be looking for any strength in TJX to fill out the core equity short position, but it is not one of the better looking bounce candidates.

If you are interested in TJX, I would have no problem opening a partial position (short) right here, just make sure to leave room to add to it and a wide stop, which means fewer shares. We don't average down as a way to get out of bad positions, we average positions because we like what we see and want exposure, but think there's still a chance to add at a better price, the main difference being is that phasing in is planned in your risk management before you take on the first share whereas dollar cost averaging is throwing good money after bad in an attempt to reduce the overall cost basis to get out of a losing trade. These are winning-good looking trades that we are just leaving room because of market volatility.

I'd be comfortable adding up to half here as a new position as a full size position.

Also Taking SCO Long Off the Table For now

Taking Half of UNG current Position Off the Table

It is because of these two charts. Even though I look at UNG as a long term play, with these divergences, I'd rather not take the chance and have some extra dry powder right now.

I still like UNG, but will be looking for a lower price to add back shares.

 UNG 10 min, you can see what bothers me...

As for timing, UNG 3 min, obviously what bothers me is clearly visible.

AAPL Update

AAPL is a tough call right here. The charts don't give the impression of a bounce, but it's such an obvious lever needed to help the QQQ/NDX as AAPL's weight on the NASDAQ 100 is approximately at last known verification (as NASDAQ weighting schedules are proprietary, but you can get a membership to NASDAQ to find out the weight for a mere $10,000 a year) 20% of the NDX's weight, that means if you took all 50 least weighted AAPL stocks and combined them together, AAPL would have the same weight on the NDX as those 50 stocks combined. Theoretically if you took those 50 and AAPL and called it the NASDAQ 51, those 50 could be up 2% on average and if AAPL closed down -2.1%, the NDX 51 would be red for the day even though 50 of 51 stocks closed up.

 1 min AAPL chart suggests intraday pullback

so does the 2 min-perhaps AAPL gains a positive divergence during the pullback?

The 5 min chart is even negative, but resistance which is pretty clear and the psychological $450 level make for a nice magnetic target.

I'll keep you updates as best I can.

TLT, HYG and VXX

TLT looks like it will see an intraday bounce, that is good for the SPX/market pullback I'd like to see, perhaps the gap just needs to be filled first. All the longer term and intermediate charts for TLT look good as well, I'm surprised not to see at least some weakness in the early timeframes for a market bounce, but I will remain patient with that one for now.

VXX charts 1 min look like a pullback, that may be the gap fill in the SPY, at 2 min intraday they look like they'll see a little upside, that may be the SPX pullback to the bottom of the range I'd like to see. I do not see this as worth trading (these timeframes). The 3, 5 and 10 min are pretty much in line-the 10 is a bit more positive, this would be as expected for a market bounce. At the 30-60 min VXX is leading positive which is inline with the market breaking down even harder after the short term bounce. This will be a trading position, but first we want the bounce in the market with VXX discounter, that's where we want to buy VXX, UVXY or VXX calls.

HYG needs to go up to support the SPX bounce, I believe it will and this may be worth a short term call. Even though I'd prefer to see if we get a market pullback to the bottom of the range giving us a better entry in HYG calls for a short term bounce play, I have to say, HYG looks interesting right here.

I will be patient though and wait at least for an intraday new low in HYG-head fake and if it is confirmed, I'll look to enter calls in HYG for the bounce play. ***Remember all of the positions for the bounce play are very speculative and should be treated as such when it comes to risk management and position sizing.

This is a way to give us some extra gains, but this is by no means a trade of any length, not even swing, it's hit and run.

 HYG 3 min is positive in tis area, small, but positive with the price trend looking as it should-watch for the downside head fake to enter calls/long.

 10 min shows HYG's probability, a decent bounce, not near enough to overcome the significant downside damage.

Intraday, HYG is in line with 3C, I'd like to see a break to new intraday lows with a 3C positive divergence to enter a spec Call position here.

Remember you have to be nimble and available to close these trades.