Friday, May 24, 2013

TLT, HYG and VXX

TLT looks like it will see an intraday bounce, that is good for the SPX/market pullback I'd like to see, perhaps the gap just needs to be filled first. All the longer term and intermediate charts for TLT look good as well, I'm surprised not to see at least some weakness in the early timeframes for a market bounce, but I will remain patient with that one for now.

VXX charts 1 min look like a pullback, that may be the gap fill in the SPY, at 2 min intraday they look like they'll see a little upside, that may be the SPX pullback to the bottom of the range I'd like to see. I do not see this as worth trading (these timeframes). The 3, 5 and 10 min are pretty much in line-the 10 is a bit more positive, this would be as expected for a market bounce. At the 30-60 min VXX is leading positive which is inline with the market breaking down even harder after the short term bounce. This will be a trading position, but first we want the bounce in the market with VXX discounter, that's where we want to buy VXX, UVXY or VXX calls.

HYG needs to go up to support the SPX bounce, I believe it will and this may be worth a short term call. Even though I'd prefer to see if we get a market pullback to the bottom of the range giving us a better entry in HYG calls for a short term bounce play, I have to say, HYG looks interesting right here.

I will be patient though and wait at least for an intraday new low in HYG-head fake and if it is confirmed, I'll look to enter calls in HYG for the bounce play. ***Remember all of the positions for the bounce play are very speculative and should be treated as such when it comes to risk management and position sizing.

This is a way to give us some extra gains, but this is by no means a trade of any length, not even swing, it's hit and run.

 HYG 3 min is positive in tis area, small, but positive with the price trend looking as it should-watch for the downside head fake to enter calls/long.

 10 min shows HYG's probability, a decent bounce, not near enough to overcome the significant downside damage.


Intraday, HYG is in line with 3C, I'd like to see a break to new intraday lows with a 3C positive divergence to enter a spec Call position here.

Remember you have to be nimble and available to close these trades.

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