Selling ERX Equity Position for Slight Gain

Considering the XLE short, it only makes sense.

Adding a Little To BEAV Equity Short

Keep an EYE on MCP Long-IT'S MOVING

Sorry, that's XLE $82 Put

Long ERY

Also Going with an XLE July $28 call ERY long is another way to play it.

I see these as extremely short positions, but probably worthwhile, ERY is a 3x leveraged Bear Energy, I think it will work fine, but be ready to close it sometime tomorrow most likely, I'd set alerts too.

I may open more, why?

First these could be quick trades, like the typical F_O_M_C knee-jerk reaction that is almost always wrong, but the CONTEXT ES model is off by over 16 points, the SPY Arb is off by -1.40.

The movement in treasuries, volatility and especially HYG, either don't make sense or they don't support this move.

I'm loathe to do this, but taking out a $100 IWM July Put

UNG Update

Overall UNG looks good, I do think probabilities are high it fills a gap around $20, it should be an add to there, I'll set an alert to look at it if/when it reaches the area.

 On a 60 min chart, this is the gap area.

Also on a 60 min chart, UNG has seen strong accumulation at the recent "U" bottoms, overall I like the looks of UNG, I'll hold hear the long equity position, maybe add to on a pullback.

The 10 min and above are all positive like this.

When we get to the 5 min, it is suggesting strongly that the gap is filled and the market has been relentless about filling gaps.

 Intraday, it would be my opinion that this is probably the last intraday move higher that you can sell in to before a gap fill, but I personally would not be very concerned about trying to trade around this correction.

When you get to the 2 min chart it seems pretty clear the next move is to fill the gap, as soon as the 1 min fails, the negatives of 2-5 min should take us to the gap.

I'll set an alert to take a look there.

AAPL Update

AAPL looks much more like I'd expect to see in the overall market, I still have a decent, actually a large open Call position there and I'm fine with it. AAPL almost looks as it its close to making a move, if we get a stop run under $430.80, I'd say the chances of AAPL being close to a move higher are greatly improved as stop runs/head fakes are the last thing we see right before a reversal.

 Here's the overall AAPL pattern, the small triangle below the larger one was a stop run, it's a type of head fake move, but even for a small triangle like the current one, we still see these moves as the market is fractal like that.

The AAPL 1 min chart, this is more like what I expected the overall market to look like today.

The 2 min chart suggest there could be a small head fake/stop run move, I'd be interested in checking that out as these tend to be good timing markers so I'll be setting an alert for $430.75 being broke.

 The 3 min chart, again this is what I would have expected the market to look like.

The 10 min chart looking good and as if this is a definitive head fake move.

Even the 60 min chart shows a positive divergence right at the head fake area.

I feel good about AAPL.

Market Update Continued...

This gives us some more color, but ultimately doesn't make things very clear.

This is just conjecture, but I assumed if we are to see a strong short squeeze HYG would be Institutional money's asset of choice to play that move, perhaps I'm wrong, maybe they are afraid of the market giving way so suddenly that they don't want to be caught with a large trading position there.

There are also issues in treasuries that may give them good reason to break away from the long term correlations we are so use to seeing.

I think until things become more clear on the market averages' side, I'll be paying more attention to bellwether stocks.

First, even though the SPY has been moving up, it's not being done so by SPY manipulation, at least not arbitrage...

The model for DSPY Arbitrage based on TLT, VXX and HYG is now $1.01 below the SPY, that's a decent dip for the SPY/

As for those assets...

HYG- High Yield Credit, a risk on asset.

 HYG shows very little improvement, I still have the HYG put position open, the improvement is limited to this chart.

At 2 min it is clearly negative and looks like some decent downside to go.

3 min is the same.

What I can't grasp is , if the USD/JPY are set for a strong short squeeze as they are on 15 min charts, then what happens to HYG which should move with the market? As it is now it seems to have so much damage that it would take several days to repair unless it makes a fast move, maybe on a F_O_M_C knee jerk reaction?

XIV-VXX and UVXY are still not giving any decent signals.

 XIV is the opposite of VXX (Short term VIX futures), in moves with the market instead against it like VXX and here we have our second day of a leading positive on a 2 min chart.

On a 5 min chart as well and pretty impressive, this suggests the market does go up, as does the USD/JPY, so far it's HYG that doesn't appear to be in line.

TLT-20+ year treasuries.

Whatever the F_O_M_C ultimately does, the expectation is that the long end will be the first to move up and the short end will be firmly anchored, I have said longer term TLT looks like it's getting ready for a strong bullish move, I think that's still the case, when is a different story.

1 min intraday today is negative, normally positive for the market.

2 min is also going negative.

As is the 5 min

But when we get to important longer term charts like the 15 min above, you can see what looks like a large base of accumulation for a longer term move to the upside.

The 60 min chart is the same, I'd like to ride this move, it's just a matter of getting all the pieces to fit.