Market Update Continued...

This gives us some more color, but ultimately doesn't make things very clear.

This is just conjecture, but I assumed if we are to see a strong short squeeze HYG would be Institutional money's asset of choice to play that move, perhaps I'm wrong, maybe they are afraid of the market giving way so suddenly that they don't want to be caught with a large trading position there.

There are also issues in treasuries that may give them good reason to break away from the long term correlations we are so use to seeing.

I think until things become more clear on the market averages' side, I'll be paying more attention to bellwether stocks.

First, even though the SPY has been moving up, it's not being done so by SPY manipulation, at least not arbitrage...

The model for DSPY Arbitrage based on TLT, VXX and HYG is now $1.01 below the SPY, that's a decent dip for the SPY/

As for those assets...

HYG- High Yield Credit, a risk on asset.

 HYG shows very little improvement, I still have the HYG put position open, the improvement is limited to this chart.

At 2 min it is clearly negative and looks like some decent downside to go.

3 min is the same.

What I can't grasp is , if the USD/JPY are set for a strong short squeeze as they are on 15 min charts, then what happens to HYG which should move with the market? As it is now it seems to have so much damage that it would take several days to repair unless it makes a fast move, maybe on a F_O_M_C knee jerk reaction?

XIV-VXX and UVXY are still not giving any decent signals.

 XIV is the opposite of VXX (Short term VIX futures), in moves with the market instead against it like VXX and here we have our second day of a leading positive on a 2 min chart.

On a 5 min chart as well and pretty impressive, this suggests the market does go up, as does the USD/JPY, so far it's HYG that doesn't appear to be in line.

TLT-20+ year treasuries.

Whatever the F_O_M_C ultimately does, the expectation is that the long end will be the first to move up and the short end will be firmly anchored, I have said longer term TLT looks like it's getting ready for a strong bullish move, I think that's still the case, when is a different story.

1 min intraday today is negative, normally positive for the market.

2 min is also going negative.

As is the 5 min

But when we get to important longer term charts like the 15 min above, you can see what looks like a large base of accumulation for a longer term move to the upside.

The 60 min chart is the same, I'd like to ride this move, it's just a matter of getting all the pieces to fit.