GLD / SLV

I don't have any really good signals that suggest either should be closed so I'm leaving them as is.

I don't like the idea of ever chasing an asset, but especially not one that's up 2.5 to 5.5% today. That's me.

Closing NUGT Long Equity Position

I'd like to re-open it, but for now I think the signals are on the side of closing it near term

Taking at Least Half of MCP off the Table (Equity long)

VXX/ UVXY Positions (Long)

You already know I took a call in UVXY meaning I do expect a pretty serious pullback, there's no point in doing these things if they aren't effective and to be effective they need to create Fear, Greed and HOPE.

 VXX 2 min


3 min

5 min

10 min

30 min

This still looks very much like the market movement expected yesterday, pullback and finish a very strong upside move.

Closest thing to a market update

The general gist: There are a lot of short term hum-drum signals, I could take them to mean the pullback is coming starting today at the close or that we could see some more fooling around in this area before a pullback. 

Overall if you want to play it safer (note I only took 1 pullback position, the UVXY call), I might skip trying to trade the pullback and keep your eye on the first prize to the upside which unlocks the final prize.

NOW...

First let me say that the biggest mover of the market I think will be the 3:30 F_E_D speech.

I also do not consider today to be a pullback, it started looking that way early, but in my opinion today has been nothing more than an op-ex pin.

Furthermore, when I say pullback in this environment, I don't mean a little dip and then everything is happy again, this is meant to scare the hell out of any long and make all shorts feel like geniuses.


First Index Futures look to me like there's still a decent pullback coming, we really haven't had much more than an op-ex pin today. However that said, the long charts 30-60  and even 2 hour all are still on board with a bigger move to the upside.

HYG is underperforming the SPX today, also 3C charts say to me the pullback is not only not done, it really hasn't even started yet, but the longer trend expected still has HYG on board.

High Yield is in line, I'd say it will move, but the fact that it is not panicked alone suggests to me they know what's coming (the upside move).

Commodities are broadly not supportive, but not in a huge way, but this time they don't have the $USD to blame completely.

Sentiment indicators are either in line or in the case of FCT, dragging, they are expecting some downside, but they aren't panicked by any means, suggesting to me they still believe in a very strong move after a pullback.

Niether the Aussie or the Euro are near term supportive, just the opposite in fact.

Yields have even given up ground, long term (as in the final up move we expect) they are still in the right place, shorter term as in intraday and day to day over the next couple/several days, they have moved to a position in which they'd exert downside magnetism on the market.

Overall if you want to play it safer (note I only took 1 pullback position, the UVXY call), I might skip trying to trade the pullback and keep your eye on the first prize to the upside which unlocks the final prize.

Full AAPL Update

Or at least as full as I can offer during the trading day.

This is why AAPL is one of the few bounce trades (meaning unlike UNG which I think will be a primary bull position over the next year, whereas AAPL will still be a primary bear position, but has a better bounce than most other assets we have call options in) that I not only have July Calls in and I think they'll be fine, but also one that has enough upside potential to also have a long equity (no leverage) position as well, which is better served for the longer trend than the call.

The reason why? I don't think AAPL is a bounce, I think its a counter trend rally (and these are the strongest rallies you'll see in the market).

AS far as today, remember what I said at the start of the week, this is the end of Q2 and there's going to be window dressing (The Institutional/ Hedge Fund "Art of Looking Smart"). I also said Thursday (yesterday) was the last day for trades to be made and show up in the new prospectus, client report. Even though the end of the quarter isn't until today, the T+3 (Trade plus 3 days) settlement rule would make yesterday the last day to move positions  and since AAOL has lost 8% this quarter, 28% this year and about 45% since its highs last year, I'd think most managers wouldn't want AAPL showing up as a current holding, but if it were me, as soon as the last day is over (yesterday), I'd buy AAPL back and clients wouldn't know about it until the end of the next quarter (with some obvious caveats).

This is why I think AAPL didn't participate this week and why AAPL looks a bit different today than the rest of the week.

This is a chart I drew some time ago, I didn't even remember it until I stumbled on the layout. What I was showing you was the change in character from a downtrend to a lateral trend which is most often a base. Then what looks like a large bull flag, because of the triangle and the probability of a base under construction, the obvious assumption would be Technical traders would see a head fake and the triangle would see a downside break instead of the upside break the technical pattern suggests, another example of Technical Analysis being used against technical traders.

 Just from a "feel" perspective, with a 45% loss under its arm, this looks and feels like the right area for a counter-trend rally, not a trend reversal, but a rally that makes people believe that. 

The Crash of 1929 and bear market that followed saw 5 counter-trend rallies , the first one started 3 months after the crash started and ultimately moved +50%over 5 months, how many people do you think bought in to the move as being a real, renewed uptrend? I'd say 95%.

 This is my X-over screen to avoid false X-overs and to manage trades, pullback expectations, etc.  Since 2009, the indicators all stayed long, RSI gave a hint at the top, but they would have kept you in for the majority of the gain.

The confirmed signal down is still in effect and may stay in effect even with a counter trend rally. So far the Price window has given a long signal, the other two (custom indicator and RSI below) have stayed in a "non-confirmation" mode for the price window X-over.

 My Trend Channel would have kept you long until the decline from the highs to $610, but that's the majority of the trend. Note the change in character with the increased upside move in yellow, this is always a warning the trend is about to end. The current short stop would be $465. I think we could see that level.

 My long term 3C is clearly negative, as far as I'm concerned, counter-trend rally or not, AAPL is a long term bear and when its in the right position, I'll reopen the short.

My MACD Heat Map takes some explaining, but it did suggest a bounce/rally was coming as well as calling the top.

The 1 min 3C and volume saw one of the larger volume moves this morning, head fake moves, even on a 1 min timeframe (fractal nature of the market) are there for a purpose. Please read my two articles on Head fake moves to understand why.

 The 3 min 3C shows stronger than usual accumulation and right at the area of large volume this morning.

The 5 min chart, note how strong the leading positive divergence is in general, but especially today.

 Even the 10 min 3C saw an increased 3C move today.

 The 15 min positive trend, this shows a large base, a lot of accumulation and a move that has so much upside potential, it can only be a counter-trend rally, no bounce has this much support from 3C.

Despite two triangles that should have produced large volume for institutional money to accumulate, in the end it was the psychological $400 level that had the largest volume.

The overall 30 min. Note the positive divergence in to the bottom at "A" and how much bigger the current leading positive divergence is at "B" so I'd expect a move much stronger than the one that started at "A".

While I don't want to chase any asset, I think AAPL is still a good add to or new position right here, that even counts for options, although longer dat

AAPL is Finally looking like it should

It looks like the signals that AAPL has been giving are finally going to pay off. I believe I mentioned last night that while the market was having its best 3 day period of the year, AAPL was moving almost directly opposite to about the same degree, but it has maintained a positive 3C position which is why I've left both the $400 July Calls and the AAPL long equity positions both open.

Charts are coming, but I wanted to get this out, AAPL does look like its time has come.

$USD and possible embargo on Williams' Speech broken?

I think this is the reason for the 3C move in ES and other averages...

Not that the market has followed the legacy arbitrage correlation at all this week, it may be getting ready to now? FX correlations have flipped at least 3 times since last week. The 1 min $USDX leading negative looks almost like the mirror opposite of ES 1 min.

As far as short term, after the 1 min there's not much more of a signal.

There is a 30 min leading negative, but it's almost impossible to say how it effects the market as the $USD's correlation was positive with the market at the start of last week, it flipped 180 degrees at the F_O_M_C, then this week it flipped again back to a correlation similar to the start of last week's like a carry trade, and now? Who knows.

The only thing I do feel strongly about as far as the $USD making such a sudden move, is the HIGH probability that the 3:30 John Williams speech has made it out of media embargo and someone on the street is acting on it. "If" this were the case, then my earlier notion today that a 3:30 F_E_D speaker could undo any market pullback or correction in to the close at least, would be right on and also answer a shocking answer as to corruption, but perhaps not a very surprising answer.

IS the F_E_D moving the market this week in a very detailed way as I suggested it would last Saturday?

IF this happens to be true, obviously it would end the pullback/consolidation in to the close.

Quick Market Update

So far this is just an intraday signal and we still have plenty of time for more than 1 intraday trend to play out.

All of the Index futures 1 min charts are leading positive pretty strongly.

All of the averages have either a 1 or 2 min 3C move that is either leading, but most are not, however they are improving at a very fast rate.

Here's an example of a leading move in ES, SPX E-mini futures.

ES 1 min

As an intraday chart it doesn't make a huge difference to the market update, which I'm still working on as there are some ambiguous or just not very powerful signals, for me at this time it is not a question of whether the uptrend will continue and be as strong as expected, for me it's more of a question of timing and more specifically the timing until the move to the upside resumes in earnest, not a pullback or even consolidation (choppy noise within a trend).

UVXY

I'll get to the market update ASAP, of course a position long UVXY obviously would have market implications, UVXY moves up, the market (typically and I say this because this very strong inverse correlation had an exception yesterday) moves down.

However as I mentioned in the last post about UVXY calls, I said this may be a "Very" short term trade.

 Here;s the VXX (UVXY is the leveraged version of VXX- Short term VIX Futures) in red vs the SPY in green. Note there's typically a nearly perfect inverse (opposite) correlation and for a good reason, if VIX futures are being bid up, it's typically for protection in response to the market moving down.

Interestingly yesterday the correlation didn't hold so well and VXX fell when it should have been rising. Today the correlation is working intraday, BUT, VXX should be in the green today, it's not because of yesterday's activity.

 This is UVXY's 1 min going positive here, you can see clear 3C distribution on the open today.

This is the chart that spurred me to action, the 2 min UVXY which had been in line with price action over the last 3 days seen here, today though it's leading positive in a big way, (even bigger right now)

 An intraday look at the same chart

The 5 min shows where UVXY went leading negative and at the second high, exceptionally leading negative, but now a relative positive. Remember relative divergences are always much weaker than a leading divergence, but this still is important.

 UVXY 10 min showing the 3C divergences at former tops and some accumulation, but what's important now is the leading negative 3C signal at a new leading low. This suggests that the UVXY move up will be short lived, that's in line with market pullback expectations, pullback enough to get the shorts frenzied and entering short, but ultimately the market should squeeze them hard and move to what could even be a new high, but at least a move strong enough to change retail's mind to bullish (they are very fickle).

Just for confirmation, this is the non-leveraged VXX and the 10 min chart, almost exactly the same, the pullback doesn't matter to me as I said yesterday, it's noise, but it's actually helpful in getting shorts to commit, it's this longer term chart that I'm interested in, this is not the ultimate prize, burt as we hitch-hike a ride with the market, it leads right to the ultimate prize.

This is the current 2 mi UVXY chart.

2 min chart at most recent capture.

There's also migration and the 3 min chart is starting to lead positive.

I may also enter a long UVXY equity position as well for the equity tracking portfolio.