I think this is the reason for the 3C move in ES and other averages...
Not that the market has followed the legacy arbitrage correlation at all this week, it may be getting ready to now? FX correlations have flipped at least 3 times since last week. The 1 min $USDX leading negative looks almost like the mirror opposite of ES 1 min.
As far as short term, after the 1 min there's not much more of a signal.
There is a 30 min leading negative, but it's almost impossible to say how it effects the market as the $USD's correlation was positive with the market at the start of last week, it flipped 180 degrees at the F_O_M_C, then this week it flipped again back to a correlation similar to the start of last week's like a carry trade, and now? Who knows.
The only thing I do feel strongly about as far as the $USD making such a sudden move, is the HIGH probability that the 3:30 John Williams speech has made it out of media embargo and someone on the street is acting on it. "If" this were the case, then my earlier notion today that a 3:30 F_E_D speaker could undo any market pullback or correction in to the close at least, would be right on and also answer a shocking answer as to corruption, but perhaps not a very surprising answer.
IS the F_E_D moving the market this week in a very detailed way as I suggested it would last Saturday?
IF this happens to be true, obviously it would end the pullback/consolidation in to the close.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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