Closest thing to a market update

The general gist: There are a lot of short term hum-drum signals, I could take them to mean the pullback is coming starting today at the close or that we could see some more fooling around in this area before a pullback. 

Overall if you want to play it safer (note I only took 1 pullback position, the UVXY call), I might skip trying to trade the pullback and keep your eye on the first prize to the upside which unlocks the final prize.

NOW...

First let me say that the biggest mover of the market I think will be the 3:30 F_E_D speech.

I also do not consider today to be a pullback, it started looking that way early, but in my opinion today has been nothing more than an op-ex pin.

Furthermore, when I say pullback in this environment, I don't mean a little dip and then everything is happy again, this is meant to scare the hell out of any long and make all shorts feel like geniuses.


First Index Futures look to me like there's still a decent pullback coming, we really haven't had much more than an op-ex pin today. However that said, the long charts 30-60  and even 2 hour all are still on board with a bigger move to the upside.

HYG is underperforming the SPX today, also 3C charts say to me the pullback is not only not done, it really hasn't even started yet, but the longer trend expected still has HYG on board.

High Yield is in line, I'd say it will move, but the fact that it is not panicked alone suggests to me they know what's coming (the upside move).

Commodities are broadly not supportive, but not in a huge way, but this time they don't have the $USD to blame completely.

Sentiment indicators are either in line or in the case of FCT, dragging, they are expecting some downside, but they aren't panicked by any means, suggesting to me they still believe in a very strong move after a pullback.

Niether the Aussie or the Euro are near term supportive, just the opposite in fact.

Yields have even given up ground, long term (as in the final up move we expect) they are still in the right place, shorter term as in intraday and day to day over the next couple/several days, they have moved to a position in which they'd exert downside magnetism on the market.

Overall if you want to play it safer (note I only took 1 pullback position, the UVXY call), I might skip trying to trade the pullback and keep your eye on the first prize to the upside which unlocks the final prize.