Lots of Noise

As is usually the case, the initial knee-jerk (immediate, even sooner than the typical knee jerk trend) has just been a bunch of noise, the TICK chart illustrates this very well.

 NYSE TICK @ +/- 1450 extremes within minutes.

Now...to see where this is going...until then, I'll be patient.

 Intraday DIA is not confirming, this could lead to a pullback and the larger "W" base or this could migrate through longer timeframes and essentially destroy the chart below, sending us lower with no bounce.

The DIA 5 min chart is still in leading positive position, the benefit of the doubt I think has to go to a pullback and larger base, but we'll let the charts tell us, it shouldn't take long.

IWM 1 min went negative just before the mins. actually almost every average did the same.

IWM 5 min still in leading positive position, unless a trend of negative migration develops, I'd still stick with the bounce potential, but I would not buy in to it until/unless we get a pullback to make a larger base with accumulation, otherwise the risk is too great vs the reward.

 QQQ 1 min

QQQ 5 min essentially the same story.

 SPY 1 min

SPY 5 min, again, the same story.

More Hawkish Than Expected

After a quick glance, the takeaway is the F_E_D giveth, the F_E_D taketh away, even if they want to say they are not in the business of bursting bubbles, that's the net effect just like driving rates to Zero created the monster in the first place. Stocks are not up on valuations or on expectations for the future, they are up because they are the only game in town with interest rates at essentially zero.

That's about to change and the F_E_D obviously is more involved and will be more involved in bursting the bubble than Yellen wants to admit...

• SOME FED OFFICIALS SAW INVESTORS AS TOO COMPLACENT ON RISKS
• *FED SAW INSUFFICIENT INVESTOR UNCERTAINTY ON ECONOMY, RATES

If the F_E_D has nothing to do with administering the market or popping bubbles, why are they even talking about it being too frothy, too complacent, not paying enough attention or discounting the fact that rates are likely to rise sooner than expected as James Bullard of the St. Louis F_E_D said (remember at the time I said "No F_E_D president would come out and say what he said without Yellen's blessing", well there it is in the minutes).

 

For now I'm leaving the shorts that are in place alone and I'm not adding to the IWM call. If there's a more sustained pullback that sees accumulation I may add to the calls at that point, but for now if the market bounces we are in good shape to open or add to short positions, if it doesn't bounce, we are in good shape with short positions that are already open.

Everything else is pretty much the cherry on top.

Market / IWM Call Position Update

I'm going to look for an initial knee jerk move lower after the minutes are released, I may (if there's accumulation) add to yesterday's July IWM $115 calls that were entered as a spec. position at 1/3rd normal size, here's why in a nutshell.

 IWM 1 min-IWM has been trading at more reasonable prices than the Q's, easier to accumulate for a short term bounce as you'd be chasing the Q's and higher premiums, unless they came down right after the minutes on a knee jerk that is accumulated.

The IWM looks decent here.

At 2 mins the IWM looks good, again at the lower gains, it's easier to accumulate than the Q's.

IWM 3 min

IWM 5 min, now  compare to QQQ charts as they have been trading at higher gains meaning accumulating would be chasing increased premiums.

 1 min nothing

 2 min actually looks like someone has a quick trade for a downside fade, maybe the knee jerk move on the release of the minutes?

Tha same at 3 mins.

I'm going to wait for confirmation, but I suspect a quick initial drop is being set up, I'm going to look for accumulation in that drop if it comes and if it's there, add to the IWM calls, at least until we get to an area where shorting the positions mentioned last night and others makes sense and is confirmed with negative divegrences.

GDX/NUGT Update

You may recall yesterday's post showing short to intermediate term charts in GDX and NUGT improving and some very drastically in a very short period of time, as in a day or two, some longer. There's no doubt that this is a long term primary uptrend I want to take place in, but where to enter has become very challenging.


Yesterday I posted the charts I am talking about in Trade Idea: GDX / NUGT and said I'd let you know when I was considering an entry, then by the end of the day, I was still uncomfortable and posted, No long Entry for NUGT/GDX yet.

In this morning's A.M. Update I wrote,

"The Minutes are released at 2 p.m. if they weren't already leaked, judging by yesterday's trade activity, I'd guess they were leaked, which may have me reconsidering some positions I was considering such as NUGT, I'm thinking it may see a head fake move through resistance and then a pullback, but I'll wait to see if that happens and what underlying trade looks like if it does."

Depending on what the minutes say, gold and gold miners could have a severe reaction, if the minutes seem unconcerned about inflation, then gold and miners are likely to drop quickly even though they should recover fine because wee know despite what Yellen wants us to think, there is a strong inflationary trend building, thus the reason gold and miners came alive in the first place, but again, it's about the headline knee jerk reaction at first.

 Here's the long term inverse H&S base, very strong and you can see GDX/NUGT are sitting right below resistance. Either way, whether a real move or not, we are very low in the trend for GDX which should make a long term primary uptrend lasting at least a year based on the size of the base.

 As suspected in the pre-market A.M. Update, GDX/NUGT are above resistance of the base, but look at the volume. Volume which is confirmed for the base, is very important for an Inverse H&S confirmation, but the breakout volume is the most important, it should be the highest by far.

Taking a closer look on a 60 min chart, the white line on volume is the level of volume on the breakout move, it's negligible where it should be roaring. This makes me a little nervous and makes me think twice about what the charts I showed yesterday improved so fast, perhaps for a pre-Minutes breakout because after the minutes...?

And we still have this to deal with...

 No matter the improvement, the NUGT 15 min chart is still negative here where it should be leading positive and...

The GDX 10 min is worse, it's not even trying to confirm today.

Anything below 5 mins is a mess, there's no confirmation between timeframes or NUGT/GDX/DUST, I suspect there will be shortly after the minutes are out and taken in a bit.

Market Update

The market never makes it easy, that's for sure.

I'm starting to think that either there's a change in sentiment since yesterday or the market is stalling, waiting on the knee jerk reaction from the minutes to make any remaining moves because there's very little going on today compared to yesterday (remember one of the other scenarios I thought possible although less likely was yesterday's intraday positive divergences were just enough to hold off the downside that had set in early yesterday, almost like the NY F_E_D's trading desk activated the "Plunge Protection Team", or the "President's Working Group on Financial Markets " as they are officially known, signed in to law by Ronald Reagan by executive order 12631 March of 1998, yes the PPT is real... Read more here.

Here are the charts which are no where near as clean as yesterday and not doing what I suspected they would yesterday, but a knee jerk reaction to the F_O_M_C minutes might be what gets us there, as always, we'll let the market tell us.

So far here's what we have... 

From 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. the NYSE TICK was swinging wildly between + and - 1000, then mellowed to a +/- 750 range and now has mellowed even more to a tight +/- 250/500 range. In other words, the market or market of stocks is moving a whole lot less as we get closer to the release of the minutes at 2 p.m.

The USd/JPY and AUD/JPY are choppy, but trendless, EUR/JPY got a boost, maybe something Draghi said? In any case, it didn't translate over to Index futures which seem to be in a holding pattern, waiting on the 2 p.m. release of the minutes from 6/18 F_O_M_C.

 QQQ intraday, the red box in today, this is only a 1 min chart, but it seems almost as if higher prices are being shut down by market makers or specialists.

The 2 min QQQ positive from yesterday and the same trend mentioned above today thus far.

The 5 min chart is overall in a good place, not seeing the smaller negative divegrences, they aren't large enough to show up here yet, this is one of the few reasons I think the initial idea of a bounce is still on track.

And at 15 min, the negatives that have been taking the Q's down, nothing has changed here, thus the reason I suspect a bounce would be all that we could expect and if that's so, I'd want to use it as I showed yesterday and last night.

IWM 1 min seeing similar behavior, stronger yesterday, today almost as if higher price moves are being intentionally suppressed, but not much in the way of intraday accumulation, it reminds me a lot of the TICK chart.

IWM 15 min as a reminder of why I would short in to higher prices if we got that bounce.

Note the dramatic change in character as soon as Q2 was over/Window dressing.

And the larger IWM picture through the suspected top area, 3C is at the worst leading negative divegrence of the entire pattern.

SPY 1 min almost the same trend as the other two above intraday

A closer look shows there's almost nothing going on.

The 2 min chart is more of an accrual of all activity since yesterday, still in leading positive position so I'd guess a bounce is still on track, but I also suspect initial knee jerk volatility on the release of the minutes is going to look very confusing.

SPY 15 min, again why I would use any bounce to short in to and the dramatic change in character as soon as Window Dressing and the QTR was complete.

SPY long term 4 hour through what I suspect is a broadening top, again, like the IWM, 3C is at new leading negative lows.

Intraday DIA actually looks the worst, this is part of the reason I wonder if we don't see an initial knee jerk lower ad perhaps that is accumulated rather than the "W" shape base, it's hard to make such assumptions though based on 1 intraday chart.

The DIA 5 min overall, still in decent enough position for a bounce.

And 60 min , look at the 3 tries for 17k and 3C at each, again, another major market average at a new leading negative low, this is why I think we really don't have much time left along with other signals like yields, treasuries, SKEW, utilities out-performance, etc.

MCP Addendum

I forgot to include, the big move up which we bought calls for on 6/3 as MCP dropped below the psychological level of $2.50 which we waited nearly the whole day for, resulted in an equity move up the next day of nearly 12%, the calls did much better of course and were sold that same day.

What actually moved MCP was a competitor had received financing which often leads to other stocks in the same industry group seeing similar treatment, that's what sent MCP up.

For some reason, like RIMM after it got hammered, the long term 3C charts stayed very positive, we didn't know why for a couple of months until the management restructuring took place, that was what the market had known and 3C was reflecting, it seems there's something the market knows about MCP as the charts are still holding up, the long term ones like RIMM which ended up being a nice winner for us.

 60 min MCP longer term leading positive divergence

15 min MCP , more detailed leading positive divegrence with a larger leading positive move recently than at the point we last traded options in MCP at the green arrow.

MCP Update

MCP's price has been moving a lot recently on Seeking Alpha Articles, but this one is of particular interest and may explain why MCP's longer term charts have stayed intact, much like RIMM's when it was in similar position, we simply didn't know why until the massive management shake-up and letting go of the dual CEO's took place, someone knew about it just as someone seems to know something about MCP as we find out today.

The key will remain in the charts. Here's the article which has some interesting insights that could have a profound effect on MCP...

Apollo Hedge Fund Backdoor Takeover of MolyCorp.

As for price and whether I "might" take out calls, it just leveled off and is starting to move laterally, think about the markets yesterday, that's where we saw accumulation so if we are to see it, it will be soon as price has started to flatten out. If it is exceptionally strong as it was on the move below $2.50 on 6/3, then calls may be just the ticket. Volume also looks like an intraday if not longer, capitulation event.

Possible Scenario

This possibility was building since early yesterday starting with the USD/JPY. We already know that equities and retail bag holders are more than happy to chase any ramp or buy any dip, just like any bubble, there's always a sense among those participating in it that, "This time it's different" and so long as the F_E_D was able to back-stop the market and print unabated, that would be true, but they can't do that forever, even if the spent 4 years convincing the market they could and would if need be. Those days are over as we are well in to the taper and inflation is carrying us much faster than expected toward a rate hike, I had said this on the CPI data a day or two before the June F_O_M_C, JP Morgan just moved their rate increase date up 2 quarters (6 months) this week, for the same reasons I cited, INFLATION.

For those who haven't seen a F_E_D Funds rate hike and the effect it has on the market, this should give you a pretty good idea...

The Tech Bubble was popped as rates were hiked by the F_E_D and make no mistake, while we are talking about when the "first" rate hike will come, there will be more than 1, that is evidenced by the committee's estimates of where rates will be at the end of 2015, 2016, etc, that means multiple rate hikes.

It seems Yellen is trying to inoculate the F_E_D from blame for the coming bear market by saying, "It's not the F_E_D's job to burst bubbles", but when we have prices move up like this, whether due to dot.coms or housing prices during subprime, inflation rises and it is the F_E_D's mandate (one of only 2) to keep prices stabile, so while Yellen says it's not the F_E_D's job to burst asset bubbles, the asset bubbles are typically what causes inflation so in a round-a-bout kind of way, she is being disingenuous. We all know without any hesitation this market was of the F_E_D's making so it's the F_E_D's job to intentionally create asset bubbles as Bernanke liked to call them, "The Wealth Effect", but not to pop them when inflation gets out of control?

That being said, as the Central Banks' Central bank, the "Bank for International Settlements" (BIS) recently said in their annual report, not only has accommodative policy been ineffective, it has created nasty side effects that will likely cause more trouble and in the end the central banks' policy will have gained them nothing which couldn't be more timely after 5 years of F_E_D balance sheet expansion of nearly 4 TRILLION dollars to buy themselves the worst quarterly GDP print of the last 5 years, one more and we are in recession. And on recession, the BIS noted that the "Leading" central banks (read as F_E_D) are stretched so thin, it's unlikely they have the resources to deal with even a garden variety recession, but this looks much worse. 

In the 1920's the F_E_D engaged in QE as recession hit hard, the policy was successful at first causing the "Roaring 20's" and assets went sky high, QE was still ongoing in 1928, just a year before the 1929 crash as the market was , well, a bubble. However this time what did QE buy? The economy hasn't recovered, the only way to get the unemployment rate down is to have a record number of Americans not counted as part of the labor force rather than unemployed,when they are in fact unemployed- 91 million right about now which is the highest ever. As soon as you fall off unemployment benefits, if you don't have a job, you are not counted as unemployed, you are not counted at all, you are no longer part of the labor force so of course the unemployment rate drops. Three million more Americans are set to fall off unemployment benefits for 2014 alone, shrinking the labor force and sending the U.E. rate lower. 

But what does the F_E_D really have to show for $4 trillion in money thrown at the economy? Inflation and a high probability of recession with the economy NEVER having recovered.

The reason I have said for years that I think this bear market will be the opportunity no one alive has seen if you are on the right side of the trade is because it is unprecedented in scale. The US faces a "Spent" F_E_D while it is inches away from being hit hard with Stag-Flation, economic stagnation and price inflation which is already evident in falling REAL WAGES and CPI/Inflation trending higher, especially in food and energy which the F_E_D doesn't like to count. We have a globally interconnected economy like never before and there are few countries any better off than the US. China is in trouble, Japan is in more trouble than ever, Europe is in trouble, South America is in trouble. Talk about the butterfly effect! And we have central banks that not only have blown most of their dry powder or as much as they can (remember the F_E_D is not a government agency, it's a bank issued exclusive rights to print money and make policy decisions within a certain framework, which only Congress is suppose to do. The F_E_D has shareholders and is a FOR PROFIT corporation with a quasi/public/private twist, but they aren't going to threaten their livelihood.

1929 was bad, but the world was never as interconnected as it is now, this is part of the logic of why I think this will be one of the greatest opportunities ever seen if you are on the right side of the market and from what I see now, very few on the retail side even know the market has two sides.

Looking more closely at what we are dealing with, I'm sure you noticed a trend in the MOMO stocks that I posted last night as potential trade set ups, we just need to let the trade come to us. Of those stocks, how many have already hit their top and are already moving to lower highs? Almost all of them and this is the dominant theme among my watchlists.

In yesterday's, A.M. Update I said,

"US Index Futures have a slightly weaker tone, don't forget the Dominant Price Volume theme that I track which was the most bearish of the 4 possibilities last night, Price Down/Volume Up, however this can create a short term oversold situation with the market bouncing the next day (today)." 

Remember, last night we had the same Dominant P/V relationship giving stronger evidence that the market is either in HUGE trouble right now or it is in a very strong short term oversold condition, we'll know soon by intraday 3C charts (if they continue to act like yesterday).

Just minutes after the open yesterday I posted, POSSIBLE EARLY HINT in which one of the market manipulation levers and part of the SPY Arbitrage market manipulation lever were acting better than should be very early right after the open, so much so it stood out enough to warrant a post. 

What would smart money need to create a bounce that can be sold/shorted in to? They'd need lower prices as they aren't going to accumulate (intraday) to kick start a market move higher (a short squeeze should do the rest, you saw our Most Shorted Index being smashed lower, it's ripe for a short squeeze). The USD/JPY did that pre-market yesterday with the break under the 200-day moving average.

As I said in a market update yesterday, "Look for lateral trade, if you see it you can nearly be sure it's being accumulated intraday", we got that and we got the positive divergences expected to be seen with lateral trade as the losses to the downside were stemmed. 

During the early afternoon hours I posted, Important Market Update,

"The last market update I warned to watch for lateral (sideways) price movement and that would very likely indicate positive divergences building, well both have happened since my last market update....this bowl shaped intraday bottom may turn down to form a larger "W" type base which would give the base a greater ability to sustain a longer move. How long in duration? I can't say, I'd guess if it was a full "W" maybe a day and then a day of reversal process, but the minutes could be a fundamental game changer as they "shouldn't" be discounted, but as we all saw, the F_E_D itself leaked the minutes about a year ago to 154 of the largest institutional and private equity firms via email almost 2 days ahead of the release. "

Then I posted this around 2:30, MARKET UPDATE/ LEADING INDICATORS, FX...t

This showed the USD/JPY as well as Yen and $USDX futures in line with our short term theory and how we could use it covered in last night's Daily Wrap with a half dozen momentum stocks that have topped and can be entered if our theory is correct at better prices and much lower risk, let the trade come to you. It also showed a number of our Leading Indicators either cooperative or at least not standing in the way of a bounce, which we still have to confirm, but that's the working theory and if there is one, I suspect the F_O_M_C minutes were leaked AGAIN.

What do we need today to get a short term market bounce? Simple, the same thing I was talking about yesterday...

A few charts from MARKET UPDATE/ LEADING INDICATORS, FX...t yesterday...

 TLT /Treasuries would need to move down, the 10-year has sold off consecutively over the last 10- F_O_M_C minute releases, as of yesterday, 20+ year treasuries were going short term negative for a move lower which is what we'd need for a bounce, this morning so far...

They are within the range still and adding to the short term negative divegrence which would send them lower for a market bounce if not help perpetuate it through the SPY Arbitrage scheme.

However as shown yesterday, this is more than likely a short term move, which is why I'd want to use it as the stronger underlying money flow for TLT looked like this as of yesterday....

 15 min , strong positive divegrence. In fact...

It was a good thing we closed the leveraged TLT trade as it came down, but now we have a leading positive 60 min chart and even a head fake move (yellow arrow) seen before a reversal 80% of the time, this tells me that any move down in TLT will likely be short lived and the market typically trades opposite TLT.

From yesterday, HYG....

 

a 5 min positive divegrence which we'd need HYG to move up to support the market via the SPY Arbitrage manipulation scheme as well as TLT and VXX down, this short term divegrence seems to indicate just that.

Why would there be such a clear, strong divergence in such a short term if the market had no idea of what the minutes said or didn't plan to shape the knee-jerk reaction? As you saw in the trade set ups from last night, such a bounce would be just as useful (more so) to them as it would be to us.

 However, also shown yesterday HYG's longer term 60 min chart with a leading negative divegrence at a toppy area, this is what we'd expect to see, HYG and the market moving down as the bigger picture, the bounce just sets up the trades for that bigger picture and I'd think probably the last time before the multitude of H&S tops break below their necklines as many have already broken below the top of the right shoulder as seen in many of last night's trade ideas.

Also from yesterday's post linked above, VXX which would need to move down, guess what? It already has started today.

 This was yesterday's short term negative divegrence and this morning VXX followed 3C's forecast or at least the underlying trade 3C was depicting from yesterday (short term distribution).

However, once again...

The longer term, stronger charts in VXX as well indicate a strong base area being created for an upside move in VIX, just remember VIX moves opposite the market so short term VIX down for a market bounce and longer term (as in after the bounce) market down on a larger scale if for no other reason than where we are in these toppy price patterns in the biggest momo stock names.

As for today, what I suspected we'd see is a move back toward yesterday's intraday lows where smart money will accumulate on the cheap, they won't chase prices higher. As of now, IWM, QQQ and DIA intraday charts have negative intraday divergences in them suggesting they hold here and move no higher or more likely they come down a bit.

The overall short term condition/divergence however is what is most important as to whether we get a bounce and that is most easily seen when prices of the averages fall and we see if 3C shows accumulation of lower prices, but it seems we don';t have long unless the minutes are part of what sends them lower?

Index futures are hinting at lower intraday prices, I imagined something like a "W" base between yesterday and today, here are the current Index futures...

 ES with a relative negative divergence since the open.

NQ accumulated the lows and headed higher in to a relative negative divegrence at intraday highs thus far, this is the weaker form of divergence and a weak one at that, however if the short term goal is accumulation (2-days), then you don't want to put out too much inventory that you've accumulated to send prices lower, only the bare minimum needed.

And TF with an early a.m. positive divergence sending it higher and a relative negative divergence since the open.

The plan would be this, if we see lower prices intraday, we need 3C confirmation that those lower prices are being accumulated. A "W" like base would be probable, but a head fake move below it would be just as probable so it would look something like this...

The SPY 2 min chart. First we'd need price to move lower, likely toward yesterday's intraday lows and we'd need to see 3C accumulation, if it's not there, then the chances of a lower low in the market rise substantially and the bounce idea goes out the window.

However as you know, before a reversal to the upside off a "W" type base formed over yesterday and today would almost certainly see a head fake move/stop run (yellow), this is where 3C would have to be positive as well as accumulating stops is the easiest, fastest and quietest way to accumulate for a bounce. I'm thinking the initial knee jerk volatility on the initial release of the minutes could cause such price action, but that's just a gut feeling, we need to confirm.

If we can confirm the following, then I'd look at some short term Call plays on the market averages, as of yesterday I liked the Q's and IWM, but we'd check to see which looks best.

The calls are only a short term hitch-hiking play, the real trade is to short price strength as we confirm 3C negative divergences (distribution) in to higher prices on the bounce, that's the idea in every one of the trades presented last night in momentum stocks.

So, 1 step at a time, but remember for the release of the minutes, anything F_E_D / F_O_M_C related almost always sees a knee-jerk move and that move is almost always the wrong move that is retraced or reversed as I showed last night we can already see that in the Russell 2000 since the 6/18 F_O_M_C as well as credit and Yields.

More to come as the market moves...

A.M. Update

Yesterday's internals I follow daily are consistient with the building of a small base for the kind of bounce that is useful to sell or short in to as I posted last night, we'll see if we get continued positive divergences today and build a larger base than just yesterday (or half of yesterday), which still wouldn't be very big, but enough for a decent bounce.

The internals I spoke of included Monday's Dominant price/Volume Relationship among the component stocks of the major averages that I track daily which was a short term oversold, Price Down/Volume Up on Monday and A VERY Dominant relationship with 282 of the SPX 500 falling in to this category of Price Down/Volume Up which is the same as Monday, a short term oversold condition, but also a generally bearish condition that usually results in a near term correction (bounce in this case). Yesterday's tone was more dominant than Monday's.

Of the 9 S&P sectors I track, 8 of 9 all came in red, the only green sector you might guess was the defensive, Flight to safety Utilities which were up +0.68% on the day.

AA's earnings beat after market also contributed to a firmer tone as Index futures were largely flat overnight (until just a bit ago) even as Asia was in the red as China's PPI came in printing the 28th consecutive contraction and Consumer Prices missed as well. This sent the Hang Seng down -1.55% which puts it in bed with the SShanghai Composite and the Nikkei as it has now lost all gains YTD (-.056% with the Shanghai Comp -3.66% and Nikkei -6.07% YTD).

Hang Seng YTD

Europe is trading with a mixed tone which has improved recently the last hour or so with US futures, at last look FTSE -0.31%, DAX +0.07% and CAC-40 -0.07%.

Treasury Futures were in a large range with a slight negative bias overnight, but have started selling off more aggressively the last hour as the USD/JPY and US Index futures have gained ground.

USD/JPY has lit US Index futures up this morning after more subdued trading overnight.

It's not surprising Treasury Futures are selling off as the last 10 consecutive F_O_M_C minutes' release has seen 10 year yields climb.

Crude is accelerating losses on the downside it had already been seeing overnight with Bent Crude now down 7-days in a row and 12 of the last 14 and WTI down 10 of the last 12.

Gold and Silver were up overnight.

The Minutes are released at 2 p.m. if they weren't already leaked, judging by yesterday's trade activity, I'd guess they were leaked, which may have me reconsidering some positions I was considering such as NUGT, I'm thinking it may see a head fake move through resistance and then a pullback, but I'll wait to see if that happens and what underlying trade looks like if it does.

This is now the 56th consecutive day the SPX has gone without a move (plus or minus) of 1%, a record not seen since the early 1990's.

As usual on any F_E_D event day, watch out for the knee jerk reaction. If the minutes were leaked (and I say this because the F_E_D was caught red-handed leaking them about a year ago almost 2 days in advance), then our bounce scenario would be the knee jerk reaction and that's why we would have seen the positive intraday divergences yesterday and should see them today, the resolution of the knee jerk would be to retrace the move and head lower which fits nearly perfectly with the macro theme presented last night in the momo stocks, short in to strength as almost all are in large tops that are at or near one of the best entries with lowest risk and great timing.

We will of course confirm that and let the market tell us, it's just a theory based on what I've seen. 

Have a great Wednesday.

It's F_O_M_C Minutes