Weekend Chuckle

Here's the Guardian's Cartoon explaining the European Bailout Plan

Weekend News

It was just last night and about a dozen times the last month that I reminded you of the Political Reality, "If you have news that must be released, but don't want it scrutinized, Friday night is the time to release it". Ever since the 24 hour news cycle started, this has been a VERY WELL KNOWN FACT. When I was a Political Junky and followed every bit of domestic politics, Friday night was my fishing time-all the best bits were released Friday night if you could find them.

So, it's interesting that Germany decided to release this news which has been known for weeks, not only Friday night, but in German time about 11:45 p.m.

Here's the headline from the TeleGraph UK:

Germany is €55bn richer than it previously thought because of an accounting error at state-owned bank Hypo Real Estate Holding.

Wow! That's damn good news. That means Germany just found $55 billion Euros under the couch cushion which also means that they are 25% of the way to fulfilling their $211 billion Euro EFSF obligation and all with found money! 

Why found money? There was an accounting error at state-owned Hypo Real Estate Holding in which  collateral for derivatives wasn't netted between the asset and liability side. It isn't found money so much as a reduction of debt-$31 billion Euros for 2011 and $24 billion Euros for 2010, all money that was previously thought to be debt can now be used to fund the EFSF!  

That's great news, so why release it when no one is watching the news, after all it was discovered earlier this month. HRE was nationalized after the failure of Lehman brothers and Germany injected capital and provided guarantees and took it over. Again, why so quiet about "Found Money" that will go toward 25% of Germany's commitment to the EFSF?

Since I thought it was good news at first read and I'm not an accountant, I'm probably not the right person to explain this, but I was smart enough to know that a substantial amount like this seemed like very good news for the EFSF, heck, it even lowered German debt to GDP by a full percentage point! Releasing it at the time they did, when it could have been released during market hours any time this week, had a fishy smell to it.

So, lets go to someone smarter then me at Forbes for an explanation.

Not Good News for the German Banking System

"That they’ve just found €55 billion down the back of the couch is nice but I still wouldn’t regard it as good news. For Hypo Real Estate is government owned and has been since it was bailed out as a result of the financial crash. And when you’ve got a government owned bank you do really rather hope that they’re managing to do the sums right. Which doesn’t seem to be the case"

"And that’s a horrible and childish error they’ve made in the accounts there too. Of course you net off collateral, you’re supposed to be measuring what you have, what you’re owed and what you owe when you do the accounts.

The real reason that it’s bad news is this. OK, sure, the error here was to the bad, showing that they had less money than everyone thought they did. But this simple error was large enough to change the public debt figures of the whole nation by 1% of GDP.

Now, who feels confident enough about the standards of accountancy, heck the standards of arithmetic, in the German banking system to be absolutely certain that there aren’t other errors out there, errors which might be running the other way? Are you really sure that the standards of auditing are up to having caught them all?"

Oh... I get it now, it's a state run bank and the mistake went on for well over a year and was so large that is created a 1% correction in German debt to GDP. I guess that could be a little embarrassing. Ever since last Sunday, it was pretty clear that no one in the EU had given this "plan" a moment's consideration. In fact the first summit on Sunday night was used almost exclusively to yell, point the finger, say, "I told you so" and was otherwise quite embarrassing to the whole of EU Finance Ministers. The Plan released on Wednesday wasn't as I pointed out, "An Action", but rather a "Plan for action", so they didn't fix anything, they proposed a plan that had no details about how they would get there and still they don't know how they will get there. There's an assumption that China will add $50-$100 billion to the fund, so long as other BRICS nations contribute, but Brazil, the "B" in "BRICS" already said "No". Furthermore the Chinese are asking for a lot, basically they are asking the EU to reverse all trade policies that have been put in place to China's dismay and they want to drive a wedge between the U.S. and the E.U. over currency manipulation. Really they want the E.U. to reverse course on everything they have been steadfast about over the last decade or to sell out their principles for the money. Furthermore China is taking their sweet time in making the decision, saying it won't be on the next G20 agenda. Then there's the unintended consequences of all fiscal decisions, such as the "FADS" QE programs-they drove commodity inflation through the roof-remember $5 a gallon gasoline and companies struggling with material costs. The UI of the EU program has already started with the other PIIGS starting to sabotage their GDP in hopes of getting similar treatment as Greece!

In other news

Norway, considered to be one of the best fiscally run countries in Europe has done what France and probably all other European banks and sovereign wealth funds have been doing-DUMPNG INVESTMENTS to raise cash in a banking sector already in a liquidity freeze and expected to raise capital ratios to the tune of more then double their current market capitalization. However, Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund did make one boo-boo, they bought Greek bonds last year with the intention of holding them through maturity as they believed Greece would never default. Now that they are facing a 50% loss on those Greek bonds, it's time to raise capital and REALLY FAST! 

From Bloomberg

Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Sold All U.S. Mortgage Bonds

The fund holds no mortgage bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S.-controlled mortgage financiers, and an "insignificant" amount of private home loan-backed bonds, said Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, today in an interview in Oslo.

In total, the fund held $6.6 billion $USD in Fannie Mae at the end of Q2 2011 and about $2.11 Billion in Freddie Mac as of the start of the year, they're all sold. So at some point over the last 3 months or so, they have all been liquidated, which further confirms the EURO Rally as $USD denominated assets have been sold over the same time period, the $USD that were raised were sold and Euros were bought and repatriated to Norway. 

Further proof was offered a few days ago when I posted about the second largest weekly drop EVER in the "FAD'S" Custodial Account for Foreign Accounts, selling of bonds and agency paper hit $20 Billion dollars for the week, bringing the amount for the last 8 weeks alone to a staggering drop of $93 Billion dollars! As I said when first explaining this phenomenon several weekends ago, EU banks and governments are selling "EVERYTHING THAT ISN'T NAILED DOWN!" As you can see by the 2 month average of $11.625 billion dollars a week over the last 8 weeks, the pace is picking up as the last week was nearly double that amount!

 It's simple supply and demand, you flood the market with $USD sales and demand as well as prices move down, you then flood the market with EUR. purchases and supply is tightened and prices move up. The HFT algorithms that are based on legacy arbitrages chase what the computer perceives as "Cheap equities" and drives the rally that much harder. However, it MUST be pointed out, that the purchases of stock that have sent this rally higher and higher are based on a false assumption, the notion of value when in fact as pointed out, y.o.y. EPS are falling by 8.5%. In essence, the HFTs have been loading up on assets in which the computer reads as a bullish environment, when in fact not only are EPS estimates falling moving forward, making the stocks worth less fundamentally, but the entire reason for the Euro rally is based on a negative event of frozen European bank liquidity (just like we saw in the US in 2008 that caused Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers to crash) which the banks are desperately trying to stave off by selling every asset class, especially dollar denominated. 

When looking at 3C and seeing one of the worst negative divergences I have seen in a long time, it also suggests that the E.U. banks have sold another $USD denominated asset, stocks; only the rally in the Euro due to repatriated funds masks the bearishness of what is really happening. Breadth readings (as boring as they are) also show something worth noting, fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally. Instead of having a solid rally that is like a solid mountain, breadth readings are showing something more akin to a thin stalagmite rising from the ground straight up while the further up t grows, the thinner it gets. 

Stocks fall when there is no demand for them and the price is no longer supported. It is likely we have witnessed over the last month or so, one of the biggest exoduses in equities that we have seen in years. To further drive the point home (besides 3C and breadth readings), while the market has moved parabolically higher (which would usually tend to draw investors back in to the market), the week ending October 19th (which saw the S&P-500 gain 12+% since early October) saw domestic equity funds lose $3.5 Billion dollars in redemptions, making this the 10th consecutive week of equity (stocks) fund outflows totaling $100,000,000,000 (that's right, $100 Billion dollars). Two things I'd like to point out, the timeframe of the 10 consecutively weekly outflows is similar to the "Fad's" Foreign Custodial Account losses (meaning Europe not only seems to be abandoning Treasuries, Agency Debt, PrimeX markets, but also US stocks) and secondly, this amount in the last 10 weeks is equivalent to what was redeemed through the entire year of 2009, except it only took 10 weeks!

It is important to understand that these funds don't just redeem the money from their saving's account, unless money starts magically flowing back in to the funds-THEY MUST SELL STOCKS to meet the redemptions, putting further downward pressure on the markets and further reducing breadth.

While this is a rather recent development, Hedge funds reported for Q3 2011 an outflow of $19.3 billion representing the first quarterly loss of net redemptions since March 2009.

Sonner, rather then later, this all catches up and unlike past outflows where money was, "Sitting on the sidelines", it's unlikely this money is coming back.

As for the short squeeze rally, which was no doubt a large reason for the rally, NYSE Short Interest has now fallen to a 2 month low as weak hands have been squeezed out.

Onto Portugal:

It was perfectly preddctable that the "me first" attititude would arise throughout the EU PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain" the minute that Grecce got the gift of debt relief. Unbelievable as it is, Greece is being "saved" AGAIN by allowing them to essentially default on their debt, by a margin of 50%. Why wouldn't other PIIGS demand the same treatment? It was less then 24 hours before Ireland started making noises and now Portugal is starting down its own path. While Ireland is going the route of manipulating their data and possibly sabotaging their own economy to get concessions, Portugal is showing real signs of distress.

I'm not going to spend much time on the Reuters Story just out today in which Portugal asks G20 member Mexico to go to bat for them in pleading their case to the US and asking for assistance-it sounds like a dead end to me. The "Fad" will likely be more concerned with the surge of US treasury selling and trying to find replacement buyers or step in to fill the void then worry about Portugal and if the US decides to help, it will be to spite China and their demands which seek to put a wedge between the EU and the US when it comes to Chinese issues like a market economy distinction and the issue of being labelled a currency manipulator.

So lets take this straight to where it will end up, in EU hands and why should the EU start paying attention to one of 4 other PIIGS all crying, "Wolf"? Because of real, tangible evidence that Portugal is on the same dirt paved road as the Greeks were.

Ambrose-Evans-Pritchard already rang the alarm bells in the Telegraph last week and if the Finance Ministers were smart when crafting their plan, they would have addd Portugal to their list instead of focussing so much on Greece.

Here's a tidy little headline that captures the spirit of the article,

Europe's rescue euphoria threatened as Portugal enters 'Grecian vortex'

Monetary contraction in Portugal has intensified at an alarming pace and is mimicking the pattern seen in Greece before its economy spiralled out of control, raising concerns that the EU summit deal may soon washed over by fast-moving events.

Here's a chart released by the ECB of M1 data

Here are the key points:

-The M1 data - cash and current accounts - is watched by experts as a leading indicator for the economy six months to a year ahead. It has been an accurate warning signal for each stage of the crisis since 2007.

-Data released by the European Central Bank show that real M1 deposits in Portugal have fallen at an annualised rate of 21pc over the past six months, buckling violently in September

-A mix of fiscal austerity and monetary tightening by the ECB earlier this year appear to have tipped the Iberian region into a downward slide. "The trends are less awful in Ireland and Italy, suggesting that both are rescuable if the ECB acts aggressively," said Mr Ward (Unintended Fiscal Consequences)

-A shrinking money supply is dangerous for countries with a high debt stock. Portugal’s public and private debt will reach 360pc of GDP by next year, far higher than in Greece.

That seems like the most succinct bullet point presentation that essentially says, Portugal is the next Greece and maybe worse. The ECB can't pretend they didn't know about this in advance.

Thats the news and review so far...

I can't help but ask myself, as the weeks and months ahead of us see the EU try to put flesh on the bones of its "Grand Plan", conceived in about 4 days to resolve a continent's problems:

Where will the Trillion plus Euros come from?

Who is willing to put their country at risk (when it's already at risk) by giving billions of dollars to a Europe who is now trying to save their single currency for the 14th time in 20 months?

Who trusts that their plan is enough for what they know right now?

And like any good boxer or politician, who trusts that the EU is robust enough to change the plan as both know that every fighter or politician has a fight plan until the first punch is landed?

Who trusts that the ultimate backstop, Germany, won't through the main cheerleader, Merkel, under the bus and choose to save itself rather then countries that share little in common with them other then a continent and single currency? We've already seen the "other backstop-France" fall target to the bond vigilantes and rating's agencies and less then 48 hours after announcing the grand plan, Germany's borrowing costs are already rising.

Who will trust the EU after they made legitimate lenders (bondholders) take a 50% loss for daring to lend to a country that few others would lend to. Furthermore, the insurance that the bondholders took out in case of such a betrayal at significant cost was declared by the EU, "Null and Void".

Who trusts that the rest of the PIIGS won't collapse and that the core itself won't be infected as France already is seeing over the last few weeks?

Who trusts that the EU and Troika are competent enough to deal with the unintended consequences that this plan will surely bring about and after the US's downgrade by the S&P because they couldn't work together fast enough to raise the debt ceiling, why should 17 nations with different constitutions and laws, different cultures and economic problems be trusted to work together any more effectively then the US?

There are so many questions, I could ask all night, but assume someone does step up and clearly the plan has been enough for now to keep banks from shutting down and the bond market somewhat pacified, but that won't last long unless the bones of the plan are fleshed out. So, when/if some creditors step up and the EU must accept, it is not likely to be the US, nor the G20, the few that are left are going to demand significant political and financial concessions for the risk. CAN EUROPE AFFORD EITHER?

After Hours trade

I admit that Friday after hours trade is probably the least relevant 4 hours of trade of the week, which is exactly why I watch it. It's well known in media circles, if you want to bury a story, release it Friday night. Thus if there's any funny play, Friday night would be a choice time to conduct it.

 DIA AH is pretty quiet

 IWM AH has seen some high volume spikes, several times higher then the normal trading hours, which is unusual.

 The QQQ has also seen some high volume spikes as well, this is out of the ordinary-we saw it last night and I believe I showed about a week of AH history where the typical volume is so low it's nearly invisible, so the last two days have had that as an unusual occurrence.

The SPY has probably seen the biggest AH volume spike.

Closing trade/volume.

 The DIA in EOD trade -the red trendline is Thursday's close, the 2 blue hash marks to the right next to the price levels are the current after hours bid and ask with the last usually being somewhere between them. All of the 4 averages are now trading below today's close as well as yesterday's close. How relevant that is, I don't know, but the AH volume is peculiar.

 This is a 15 min chart of the IWM, the very last candle is interesting in that it was the largest volume of the day (institutional money tends to trade actively right near the close) and it tests resistance at yesterday's close and is sent lower, actually lower then the open of the price candle on the highest volume of the day. Again the red trendline depicts Thursday's close.

 The QQQ 5 min last candle of the day is also the highest volume and letting go of the previous candle's gains. I can't say this is all that strange going in to the weekend and wouldn't read too much in to it.

Many of the averages formed a triangle today which is classical technical analysis would be considered a consolidation pattern. Because it s symmetrical as opposed to ascending or descending, there is no bias except for the preceding trend that led to it, which in this case would be down. So classical TA would interpret this as a bearish candle, as we know classical TA gets head faked all too often and the break above the apex would be considered the head fake-so long as the triangle resolved to the downside next week. In TA, when you have a pattern like this and you expect it to break down (perhaps you even entered a short on the pattern) and then it breaks up, it is considered a failed pattern and many gurus of TA say you should take the opposite side of the trade, meaning to go long. Over the last several years for those of you who have been here, we see this quite often and the end result is that the pattern is head faked and then plays out to the downside after first sucking in the long buyers. Time will tell if this is another one of those head fake moves.

The 5 and 15 min 3 charts would suggest that it is.

 SPY 5 min

SPY 15 min (I wouldn't expect there to be enough time for readings beyond 15 mins.). After hours price would also suggest the same, however with much less weight.

Taking one last look around as things change fast during the time it takes to post, the averages continue to trend down during AH, especially the DIA and the QQQ which would be at a new low if it were not for an earlier candle that had an extremely wide range (you can see that candle in the QQQ AH chart above). The QQQ is trading about $.07 higher then the low of that earlier candle to give you some idea.

Greek Sentiment

I've been looking at this all day, but have been far too busy to post it. This isn't meant to be a funny post , it is meant to bring attention to a very real conflict and serious animosity emerging. We've seen two World Wars start in Europe and even though I don't agree with Angela Merkel's use of hyperbole in telling the German lower house that they should not take "50 more years of peace in Europe for granted", I do agree with the statement.

One might think that the recipient of the 50% bond holder write downs, Greece, secured in large part by pledges backed by German GDP and thus German taxpayer money, might be thankful. I for one don't see that point of view considering the painful austerity cuts being forced on the country as well as the all but assured crash of the pension system, but I suppose some (particularly in Germany where the measure is extremely unpopular) expect some gratitude.

If the EFSF bailout "plan" did one thing right away that isn't being put off until November (as most details of the plan are), it managed to unite Greeks from the left, right and center, you might say the ninety-nine percenters.

Here are some of the expressions of  Greek sentiment:

-Greek news papers are running cartoons of prominent German officials in Nazi uniforms.
-The Greek sentiment is that the Germans have condemned Greece to 9 years of collapse and poverty
-Greek government officials who have supported the measures are depicted giving German officials the Nazi salute.
-There's a cartoon of a German solider watching over the Greek Finance minister and ordering Greeks to "Pay more taxes!"
-And unfortunately, German tourists visiting ancient Greek sites are being treated in a hostile manner.
Germany did occupy Greece during World War 2 however you would think that those memories have subsided over the years. I have good friends in Frankfurt and they assure me that German involvement in other EU countries is extremely unpopular so it would seem the regular people on both sides feel the same way. I just hope that this does not escalate in to violence.

As for an example of posters going up around Greece...

This one is called, "Adolph Merkel" as she wears a swastika armband with the EU emblem around it. The caption says, "Public Nuisance".

With the "Occupy" movement going worldwide after the Arab Spring, we can only hope that elections bring fairness and a sense of justice before things get out of control as we are already seeing that happen right here in the US by means of violence when protestors have confronted police. I'm sure you have seen the YouTube videos.

ES Update

 ES is always interesting and thus far is tracking very well with 3C.

Here's today's ES (E-Mini) contracts. The average volume today was about 4700 contracts per minute and this is a 1 min timescale.  There was a negative divergence in the morning that sent ES lower. Note the higher volume during the negative divergence which signifies distribution (3C can not tell the difference between selling distribution and short selling distribution as they both come across the tape as a sale-so it could have been either, but I would lean toward short selling in to strength). After that negative divergence sent pries lower, there was a positive divergence (accumulation/buying), however it was on a much smaller scale as volume reflects in the white box. This is an old market maker strategy but I assume bigger players use it as well, they buy the ask until they push price up, but on as little volume as possible and then sell on heavier volume in to the advance. There was a second accumulation period (white) again on lower volume followed by another intraday bounce, this time on heavier volume. This rally was in to 2 negative divergences, a long term one (blue arrow) and a local one (red arrow) and during this time period, we actually saw the heaviest volume of the day at 39,229 contracts in a single 1 min period (about 8x the average). The overall volume was rising as well.

I verified this daily chart as many platforms are still showing incorrect daily information. There are two things that stick out here. The first is a "No follow through day". After a breakout above an important resistance level as shown yesterday, the next day sees what is called "Follow Through buying" and volume and price usually are greater then the first day, there's an example below. The second issue is a Harami Cross which is a candlestick reversal pattern. It looks very close, but again I verified the price levels and today's doji does fall within yesterday's body, this is a common reversal set up with the 3rd day being confirmation.

Here is an example of follow through buying this week in URRE. The first day is the breakout (and this isn't even really important resistance), the second day sees follow through buying in which price and volume shoot up as investors judge this to be the start of a new leg or trend up.

Here's an example of a Harami Cross in Goldman Sachs, it's not exactly the same, but these are rare candle formations and difficult to find.

 Here's the GS Harami Cross reversal, it is similar in a couple of ways, the two candles are very similar and GS broke an important resistance level. Here's what happened next...

The Cross is in the white box, GS fell about 45%. However, a Harami Cross reversal does not carry a downside target, it simply is a high probability reversal pattern.

Second Verse Same as the first

Yesterday in what I've mentioned as a "set-up" the market rallied on no news and no correlation with the Euro which was moving down, which seemed like a bearish set up.

Today wasn't much different.

 DIA's "set up" yesterday in the white box as the Euro moved down, this also broke an already parabolic linear regression channel (for the importance of this I would strongly advise reading Don Worden's "Street Smart Charting" in which a break of a channel-especially a parabolic channel seems like a bullish event when in fact it is typically one of the last moves before a market reverses direction, kind of like the "head fake" event).

 The same in the QQQ , I use the red trendline of the Euro to establish the trend of the Euro and the green line to establish the relative trend vs. the Euro in each market-this being the Q's. Also note the decent volume spike on the last candle, which is a bearish candle-all of the charts show the same.

 The SPY...

The IWM is a bit harder to establish a baseline on, but nonetheless, there's an effort and an ugly closing candle/volume.

A lot more coming...

Fair is Fair right?

Lehman probably didn't think so after Bear Sterns, but this next bit was predictable as soon as the first mention of 50% haircuts on Greek Debt were uttered, even if the real number is only 28% or so.

From Reuters:

Merkel: Must prevent others from seeking hair cuts

"In Europe it must be prevented that others come seeking a haircut," she said.

Surely this isn't the very first time she thought of this?

Sure enough...

From Business Week

"Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland's government may cut at least 1 percentage point off its 2012 economic forecast, as a global slowdown curbs the country's export-led recovery, according to two people familiar with the matter."

This would mean Ireland will likely cut their GDP for 2012 from 2.5% to 1.5%.

France already cut their's from 1.75% to 1% yesterday.

"In Ireland, Noonan has said the government may need more than the planned 3.6 billion euros ($5.1 billion) of budget savings"

The EFSF was largely built and is hoping to be leveraged to deal with the Greek Crisis, Once Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy start seeking the same "fair is fair" treatment, it is highly unlikely that there will be an EFSF and at that point, the Germans may be printing a new or rather old currency (Newspapers in Germany are already quoting their prices in Deutsche Marks)

Bollinger Bands

Most of us know that when Bollinger Bands see a very tight squeeze a highly directional move is about to take place.

Here are the ETF averages on a 30 min chart with the tightest squeeze since the rally started.

 DIA

 FXE

 IWM


 QQQ

SPY

Treasuries

Yesterday I noted the start of a turn around in treasuries. I just ran in to this post, I'm not a treasury expert by far, but if my take is correct, then there's some correlation with what is being said and what I'm seeing. First I'll post the article and then the charts (although it's difficult to find the exact correct treasury harts due to them not being available or having such low volume that any analysis is useless, but the charts used do cover the timeframes noted in the article.

Here's the article and link

Did Primary Dealer MF Global Dump Its TSY Inventory And Exaggerate Thursday's Equity Rally?

We have often discussed the use of the Treasury 2s10s30s butterfly as a carry tool and it makes sense that primary dealers would proxy this in their inventories to earn a much more risk-managed carry than a simple curve trade from a net interest margin perspective. With MF Global drawing down its credit lines and facing immediate stress, it also makes sense that they would look to sell down any and every holding they had in order to show liquidity. In the 24 hours from mid-day Wednesday to mid-day Thursday the 2s10s30s butterfly experienced one of its largest ever shifts higher (unwinding the carry trade) at over 4 standard deviations and only matched by moves in Q4 2008 (LEH?). Equity markets tracked this massive and unending rise in 2s10s30s almost tick-for-tick which we think explains how such a no-news summit in EU can create such a massive move in US equities. Moreover, the attractiveness of the 2s10s30s butterfly is reappearing up here and it is compressing suggesting stocks have room to fall here.

This shows the 1-day moves in 2s10s30s with the red dot indicating the 24hr period move from Weds to Thurs this week - over 4 standard deviations.

The shift up in 2s10s30s from Weds to Thurs was incredible in size and very notable for the hyper-correlation with ES. Today sees the low volume equity range holding up as 2s10s30s starts to get bought again (for carry) suggesting equities have some downside risk here.

Charts: Bloomberg

As for the charts, which should show a sell-off Wed-Thursday midday and accumulation since.

 2 year the dates are in white at the bottom, Wed /Thursday and mid day being key.

 10 year

20 year

Whatever you make of the article, 3C seems to agree on all 3 charts there was selling when they saw selling and accumulation since Thursday around mid day.

IWM-Russell 2000

The IWM which has put in the largest percentage gain on this rally (IWM 25.3% / SPY 16.4% / QQQ 15% / DIA 14.65%) is also one of the first today to show lower lows and lower highs

The white is lower highs, the red is lower lows. There was an uptick in volume as the intraday lows were taken out. Now to see where this next bounce goes (if it continues the pattern). It appears to be turning down now, but it's too early to say conclusively.