Filled QQQ May 10th $70 Puts & May 10th IWM $95 Puts

These are both speculative, market pullback trades based on the signals from late yesterday as posted yesterday afternoon and last night and the fact that the intraday 1 and 2 min charts that "WERE" confirming the move this morning have gone negative.

Splitting QQQ $70 and IWM $95 May 10 Puts as 1 Position

Leaving AAPL Calls in Place / NFLX Put or Short position Still looks good here

CONTEXT ES / SPYARB

The Context model just saw one of those huge swings I mention that occur from time to time, I'm not sure if they have a reset day or what, but CONTEXT for ES which was at a NEGATIVE 25 point differential for ES (SPX futures), is now only about 4-5 points negative, meaning the model is showing ES as being 4-5 points rich to the model's finding.

As for SPY arbitrage, it also seems to support the idea of a pullback brewing...

Here's it's going negative.

I'm going to look at some VERY short term/ VERY speculative SPY/QQQ (or any of the averages) PUTS for this apparent pullback.

Market Update

What a strange market, I'm guessing this is the early a.m. trade games. The negative divergence suggesting the market pullback is still there on the timeframe that count. The Euro, EUR/USD and $AUD are all showing initial signs of a positive divergence in the futures and the $USD a negative, which is market supportive.

I also took a QUICK look at Leading Indicators, Credit, Yields and Commodities are market supportive intraday so you'd think we'd be seeing stronger market signals, but in fact we are starting to see deterioration in the intraday 1-2 min charts that had been confirming the upside, just when the currencies seem to be turning more supportive.

I would "Consider" a short term position in either a BEAR ETF for one of the market averages (I prefer leverage) so SQQQ, SRTY, SDOW or SPXU or perhaps some short term calls. I would at least be looking at them and be ready to open at a moment's notice if we get the short term confirmation that the longer charts are indicating, A MARKET CORRECTION/PULLBACK.

I'll continue to update.

Lets see what a potential change in directions in currencies does for Precious Metals.

GLD Charts, GLD May 3 $134 Call P/L & SLV Update

I still like GLD a lot, however I/we still have a May 10th $130 call in GLD whereas this one expires next week so the time decay is going to start getting more serious on any loss of momentum, even a normal healthy consolidation.

If I were long GLD stock or any of the leveraged gold ETFs, I'd stay right there and sit through any potential corrections for now.

Here's the P/L for the Calls just closed as well as some charts and the SLV analysis as that was a long/call position entered yesterday doing fantastic today.

At the $6.25 fill, the gain on this position from late last week is 84+%

 There's a slight relative negative divergence in the intraday 1 min chart, that could be nothing or perhaps an intraday correction (at minimum) if it creeps to the 2 min chart which there are some initial signs of.

However, nearly every other timeframe looks excellent for GLD and today's strong dollar just makes the move that much more impressive.

This is a 30 min GLD chart with a very recent, very strong Leading Potive divergence, this is why I think GLD has a lot more upside, on a gap fill/correction, GLD will likely be a great add-to or new position whether using calls or a leveraged long gold ETF.

As for SLV which we started yesterday, it's already up over 70%, so far the charts look excellent, we have at least confirmation and leading positive divergences, there's a substantial gap that will likely be filled at some point and that will almost certainly make a great entry for anyone interested in SLV calls or a 2x leveraged ETF like AGQ.

Closing GLD May 3rd Expiration $134 Calls

I'm taking this momentum as the expiration is nearing.

Intraday movement /Gold

For now I'd watch the EUR/USD for any signs of a reversal or move to the upside, this would be market supportive,if you don't have real time currency charts, watch FXE for the Euro, you are looking for any move upo (market supportive) and you can watch UUP for the $USD (any move down would be supportive of the market). If the EUR/USD keeps falling, FXE keeps falling and UUP keeps rising, this will be very market negative.

I also suggest watching the NYSE intraday TICK Index...

 Draw a trendline under the 1 min NYSE intraday TICK ($TICK) and look for a break below the trendline, that should give you some early warning of a market reversal to the downside.

Also indicators like these, momentum, RSI (setting 6), MACD (settings 26/52/9) and Stochastics (50/3)  and look for any negative divergences in multiple intraday timeframes starting with 1 minute.

We also have a nice gain and gap in GLD so I'll be watching that as we have two open Call positions.

Euro Down, $USD Up

This is not a market friendly environment, apparently next week's "expected" 25 basis point cut by the ECB (European Central Bank) is sending the Euro lower and $USD higher, Goldman Sachs piled on with a release this morning and seeing as they are always wrong, I suspect at some point soon, Goldman will be accumulating the Euro and perhaps selling in to next week's ECB meeting announcement.

For now the divergences in the market that were there late yesterday are still there, the only difference is  that some of the intraday 1 and 2 min charts are confirming the move up this morning, but that can change very quickly. I'm going to check leading indicators, but by the way the EUR/USD is moving, I can't imagine this market can hold up long in the very near term.

For the moment I'm not taking any action until I better understand what's going on and have strong signals.

I'm Back

I swear, I've been going to the same Back/Spinal doctor for 8 years and every time I see him, it's like I'm a new patient, he doesn't remember anything about my treatment, I spend half the time arguing with him about what we did last visit, unreal-GREAT RECORD KEEPING! Unfortunately he's a good doctor.

In any case, I'm going to poke around the market real quick and get an update out. Thanks for your understanding.