Tuesday, July 19, 2011

USO Update

Remember the last USO update today, I said there's a possibility for a false breakdown before USO takes off, well that probability just increased.

 Here's the bullish bull flag, it's a well known pattern in a popular stock, a shakeout is certainly not out of the question and in fact has been a high probability in situations like this, that's why I mentioned it earlier before I had any proof of there being probabilities leaning toward that outcome.

 The hourly hart is strong and n a leading divergence, this is why I reman bullish for USO's intermediate term prospects.

 However, as pointed out earlier, accumulation is happening in the lower half of the flag and distribution keeps sending price lower when it approached the upper range, we see that once again today on the 30 min chart
 Here we see it on the 15 min chart as well.

 And the 10 min chart...

 And the 5 min chart....

I can't say for sure if this would simply be a pullback from resistance to gather some more support like we saw in yesterday's decline or whether this is moving toward a downside shakeout, if the downside shakeout occurs, I'm almost certainly a buyer, of course I'd check 3C for a head fake, but the way the market has been manipulating technical traders, this would not at all be uncommon, in fact just the opposite.

We'll continue to monitor USO as I feel there's a good long trade there, the entry is the question. Right now, a pullback in some fashion is very high probability.  You might even consider a quick trade in SCO for a day, maybe a few days.

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