I'm not sure what to make of this yet, but here it is...
Treasuries largely have an inverse correlation with the market as seen here in TLT vs. SPY (red), but there are times they correlate in the white boxes, right now happens to be one of those times.
Look at the melt-up in TLT today. I don't know what's behind it, but I suspect it has something to do with the information curve and we'll likely find out shortly.
TLT 10 min confirmation
TLT 5 min confirmation
The SPY is going a bit negative on the 1 min chart, which is not to be unexpected with this kind of gain going into the close.
The 5 min hart shows a little bigger problem as far as confirmation, but then again, this bounce wasn't expected to be strong like the short squeeze.
Oddly the 10 min chart is in confirmation of the SPY.
The 15 min chart is not.
The 30 min chart is.
We may be seeing some migration in to treasuries in advance of an expected drop in the market, or perhaps there's news about to break.
Either way, we're likely to see some profit taking here. The strength in XLF though has me thinking we are not done with this bounce.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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