Tuesday, July 19, 2011

SLV Update

 Recently we've seen a decoupling of the positive correlation between precious metals and the equities market, this has to do with inflation expectations.


 This was a bearish looking chart at the red arrow, you can see SLV broke out much like GLD and is acting in similar fashion today.

 Here's the 60 min 3C with a nice positive divergence to start the move up, at the green arrows we have confirmation of the trend and now a slight negative divergence.

 The 15 min chart shows a negative relative divergence, but in my opinion, it doesn't look as bad as GLD's.

 Here are the recent 10 min negative divergences over the last two days. SLV also formed a consolidation pattern that broke out to the upside yesterday.

As  noted last week, the daily 3C chart of SLV looks stronger then the same in GLD.

GLD deteriorated during the May/June consolidation, SLV got stronger. As for relative positions, GLD is making a new high here, but 3C is falling short, SLV is not making a new high and 3C is close to being in line.

I think both are headed for a pullback and I think the gains in the market today have a lot to do with that as the positive correlation fades, however, I question whether SLV's pullback will be as extensive as GLD's. Right now, you could say for the intermediate term, I'm more bullish on silver then gold.

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