Tuesday, July 19, 2011

SPY Update

Looking at the charts this a.m., I'm thinking this bounce up, which will be used by Wall Street to sell short in to strength, may not last as long as I originally though, which was most of this week. What is VERY clear was yesterday's weakness was used to accumulate a position for the pop up today as I suspected. However, that makes about a single day of accumulation which doesn't bode well for a bounce of any length. Negative signs are already showing up. As I suspected yesterday, tech s one of the leaders of this bounce, you can see that clearly from the % gain in the Q's vs. the SPY (1.7% and 1.00% respectively).

 The 1 min chart shows NO signs of confirmation, which in my view means distribution of longs accumulated yesterday, has already begun, right off the open.

 Here's some of yesterday's accumulation, the 5 min chart is in line, but it's no more bullish then that.

 The 10 min hart which is 1 of 2 timeframes that led me to my theory of a down market yesterday followed by a bounce, is showing some relative weakness, compare 3C's position to the two relative price points.

 The 15 min chart was the second of the two charts I mentioned above, once again, note the strong accumulation yesterday, it showed up on a 15 min chart in one day which indicates strong accumulation, but the relative positioning of 3C is poor, agin compare 3C's position to the two relative price points, at this point 3C should be higher.

Finally the 30 min chart. For 1 day accumulation to show up, once again it was very strong yesterday, this chart hasn't reacted negatively yet, but we are comparing a full day (yesterday) to an hour and 45 mins of trade so far today.

Just keep long stops tight, I added some Ultra-longs yesterday and will keep stops tight, I'll also be looking at shorts and entries. I didn't post the other averages, but they are all similar.

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