Treasuries...

If you're not up to speed on the trade in treasuries, last Friday's post covered it pretty well.

We first noticed late day Treasury buying even as it was still trending down (this was interesting because this is the time of the day when the pros are most active). Sure enough it led to a reversal in the short term trend, but Friday's post shows a reversal was under way long before last week.

 I have pointed out the last few days that Treasuries have been rising despite the market as they have a traditional inverse relationship.

 Here are treasuries in green, the SPY in white, you can see the inverse relationship, so it is strange seeing treasuries bid even with the market. There's not much of a yield so it seems more like a flight to safety trade.

 Today TLT is up almost 1% and did not move down when the market bounced. TLT isn't exactly a high beta ETF so to see it up so much is again, strange, but it should be viewed as a hint and a piece of the puzzle.

 This is the long term 3C chart showing treasuries about to reverse and then something changed and they started seeing a long term positive divergence, almost as if Wall Street changed their mind right in the middle of what was to be a decline.

And the positive 15 min divergence I highlighted last week that has lifted TLT/Treasuries...