Monday, February 27, 2012

Earnings Play Monday After-Hours -PCLN, HGSI and AMRS

OK, we are pretty close to the EOD, so here's what I see thus far...

PCLN...
 The 1 min chart didn't tell me anything today, I wish it did.

 The 2 min chart today is slightly negative, but this doesn't stand out as an earnings leak to me.

 Longer term the 2 min chart is very negative as I showed last night, but the truth is, this doesn't look too much different then the QQQ, so I'm guessing this is more general market related then earnings, although that certainly is part of the general market tone. The 15th seems to have been some sort of breaking point event, it is noticeable in quite a few stocks, not the least of which is AAPL.

 The 5 min chart hasn't told me much, it is more or less in line with a slight hint of a little positive the last few minutes.

 Longer term on the 10 min, there does appear to be selling, I just can't say it is earnings related.

 Same with the 15 min chart

 And the 30 min, again the 15th seems to be some transition.

Overall on the 60 min it is negative, but this wouldn't be a reflection of an earnings leak, I would say just overall market distribution. I would not pick PCLN as an earnings play, but the stock does look like it has a problem.

HGSI is a little different, this is a bullish play.

 The 1 min chart didn't fall with HGSI today, that is bullish.

 Longer term 1 mi seems like it has been under accumulation for some time.

 The same with the 2 min

 Today the 5 min chart went leading positive on a move down in price, this is bullish.

 And long term 5 min

 The 15 min chart has a strong positive divergence

 As do the 30 and 60 min

I'll update AMKR after this so I can get this out to you. I personally would consider HGSI an earnings play on the long side. The only thing I am concerned about is whether this is earnings related or a drug in their pipeline, the difference would be timing. It's like the RIMM long earnings play we took and they dropped 9% on earnings, but the accumulation was real and they replaced their CEOs a few weeks later and we eventually made a decent chunk of change on the trade holding from earnings.

All in all, I like HGSI the best.

AMKR coming up.

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