Monday, February 27, 2012

EUR/USD (Euro)

 This is the ascending triangle (which is a bullish continuation pattern) in the Euro (EUR/USD), as you can see it has broken down. There are far fewer head fakes in currencies then equities, but until it really turns, you can't rule it out.

 It has definitely killed market momentum

 This 5 min chart of FXE (Euro) is showing some weakness that is bleeding through from the shorter charts below.

 FXE 2 min

FXE 1 min.

If this keeps up, it looks like the Euro's last run may be ending here which will put pressure on the market and probably commodities as well such as GLD/SLV and perhaps USO.

USO has had a break today, I'm not making much of it as it is just a day, but it's worth noting and keeping an eye on.

The one thing that makes this move in USO a potentially interesting one is the "channel buster" or break out of the channel on the upside, many times when this happens, although it looks bullish, it leads to a reversal. It wasn't a huge move, but it was a well defined channel. It is worth noting as I said and keeping an eye on.

As for the Euro, I'd expect it tries to maybe kiss that triangle before moving lower, however as I noted above, until it does make a break lower, a head fake can't be ruled out, although I suspect it is probably a genuine break.

No comments: