Thursday, May 10, 2012

JPM Surprise Announcement All the Talk in AH...

I'll just copy and paste the story...


Out of nowehere, JPM announced 40 minutes ago that it would hold an unscheduled 5pm call to coincide with the release of its 10-Q. Rumors were swirling as to why. The reason is as follows:
  • JPMORGAN SAYS CIO UNIT HAS SIGNIFICANT MARK-TO-MARKET LOSSES - "Fortress balance sheet" at least untilBruno Iskil gets done with it.
  • JPMORGAN SAYS LOSSES ARE IN SYNTHETIC CREDIT PORTFOLIO - but, but, net is NEVER, EVER Gross.
  • JPM WOULD NEED $971M ADDED COLLATERAL IF RATINGS CUT ONE-NOTCH
  • JPM WOULD NEED $1.7B ADDED COLLATERAL IF RATINGS CUT 2 NOTCHES - how about three notches?
  • JPMORGAN: MAY HOLD SOME SYNTHETIC CREDIT POSITIONS LONG TERM - "Level 3 CDS FTW"
  • "As of March 31, 2012, the value of CIO's total AFS securities portfolio exceeded its cost by approximately $8 billion"
As a reminder, the CIO unit is where Bruno Iksil was making $200 billion-sized bets. Basically JPM has suffered massive losses at its CIO group most likely due to its IG/HY positions held by Iksil.
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Naturally I'm always interested in whether the street was aware or not, I think 1 chart sums it up. You probably remember those 15 min charts from last night in a bunch of different stocks, all leading positive except TLT which was leading negative, well applying the same methodology to JPM...

To answer the question, was there a 15 min leading positive?
 Well, that answers that...

Now, as we know there aren't too many secrets on Wall Street so while retail is quite surprised, I suspect Wall Street is less so. Lets take a longer look and see when the news probably hit the street...

 I'm coming up with about March 26th or in the vicinity of the end of March.

If this was really bad then we should see it on a daily chart...

And there it is, leading negative ON A DAILY CHART! Timeframe? Right around the end of March.
Of course it's not a rigged market! Of Course there's no trading on inside information.
My question relates more to Jamie Dimon's close relationship with Uncle Bernie, what if anything comes out from Uncle Bernie? After all, Jamie did a lot to help Bernie in 2008.

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