Thursday, May 10, 2012

Market looks to be consolidating

I would think the market is consolidating here based on a couple of reasons, 1) the Euro consolidation, a break out and move above $1.30 would be bullish for the market. 2) There's a good deal of resistance in the immediate area, traders seeing that resistance hit and price back off from it would likely become emboldened to short the market which ultimately would be helpful for any bounce as they are squeezed.

Here's what the intraday action and the longer near term trend look like...

 10 min SPY chart, Tuesday formed a bullish hammer support zone, Wednesday the market closed above that support zone. Today resistance is around the yellow area, both gap and overhead, the market is likely to hold off and consolidate until the Euro makes its move. A break above $136.75 would be the start of a move higher.

 Here's the 5 min consolidation, note volume is in a consolidation phase as well.

 The 1 min intraday chart has shown positive divergences near the lower end of the range, as prices approach resistance, negative 1 min divergences set in, this is consolidation behavior.

The overall trend on the 5 min 3C chart looks good here as you can see price remains conolidative, but 3C continues to lead higher.

I would guess the first sign of a move will be preceded by a breakout in the Euro's consolidation.


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