Thursday, May 10, 2012

More on Greece Where the action is

I've found it strange that first the New Democracy which had 3 days to try to form a coalition government gave up after 1 day, then Syriza, the party that shocked the investment world by coming in second place in the vote with their anti-bailout theme was given 3 days, they too passed the baton to the third place party, PASOK.

If a coalition government can't be formed, there will be new elections mid-June. I think the ND gave up because they saw the tak as hopeless as 60% of the country voted for anti-bailout parties and even as the ND was the largest party, they are pro-bailout, it makes it hard to form a coalition government, PASOK has less chance, but why did Syriza give up so quickly?

I think we now have the answer, it's the new elections. Since the election Sunday night, things have changed radically and according to polling data, upon a new election, Syriza would gain just about as many parliamentary seats as New Democracy and PASOK combined. With the other smaller parties being overwhelmingly anti-bilout, Syriza, a party few ever heard of before the elections that surprised the investing world, would easily be able to put together a coalition government and sidetrack the Troika imposed sanctions and bailout. It now seems obvious that Syriza is just waiting for new elections.

The problem that one little bond issuance and one little country could create that not only causes Greece to default, but to reshape the entire EU and send many of it' banks in to total insolvency, a $410 million dollar bonds payment due on May 15th, this is a PSI holdout, meaning they own international law bonds with stronger protections for the bondholders and DID NOT take the new PSI Greek debt which cost those who did well over 50%. Should Greece have no government a it looks like it will not when the payment is due in mere days, and should they not make the payment, Greece WILL be in default over a little over $400 million dollars!

While the world has watched extraordinary measures and huge sums of bailout money in the multi-billions go toward saving Greece from a default, it could all come down to a $400 million dollar International law bond! These are the things that defy imagination, how a splinter could take down an entire continent.

It gets even better, but I'll cover that later.


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