Thursday, August 30, 2012

Gold, GDX (Miners) & DUST

I've been hoping for a move a bit higher in GLD for a Put position, looking at these charts I've gathered, I think we will get it as well as a better entry for GDX short or DUST.

Here are the charts for all 3...


GLD
 Yesterday's 1 min positive divergence in GLD, so far we have a gap up of +.032% off this intraday positive divergence.

 Yesterday's GLD 2 min positive divergence

 The 3 min trend, like the 1 and 2 min is ultimately leading negative, this is where the probabilities for a GLD trade are, down, but the short term intraday divergences may give us the better entry/price concession I have been holding out for with a put position.

 The GLD 5 min chart at the head fake area as well as the area I'd like to see a brief move above for a put position.

 This is roughly the target area for a put, >$162.50

GDX (Gold Miners)
 Several resistance areas...

 The 4 hour chart shows probabilities higher trading GDX on the short side.

 This is where I'd like to see a price move to in order to justify a Put position, if I'm looking at an equity short (non-leveraged position), we are pretty much close enough, I might consider a phased in entry, half in this area and half above the $48.25 area.

 The hourly chart also showing the probabilities highest trading miners from the short side as the divergence worsens to a leading negative above resistance.


 The 30 min chart leading negative on the move above resistance.

 The 15 min going quickly to a leading negative on the move above resistance. AGain, there are a lot of charts like this with clear break downs in 3C once resistance is passed and very quickly.

The Jackson Hole Bernie speech tomorrow may be a catalyst, even today, for Gold and related assets to move in anticipation, it's highly probable the Jackson Hole Speech disappoints on the QE front.

 The 1 min trend leading negative right above resistance, but a short term positive divergence from yesterday.


 Here's the 1 min positive from yesterday on an intraday basis.

 The 2 min intraday positive from yesterday

 The 3 min intraday positive from yesterday


 Again, like GLD the 5 mi chart offers nothing, so the intraday positive divergences are fairly small, fairly weak, but perhaps enough for short term positioning, they definitely don't effect the probabilities of the direction of the trade, short.

DUST-3x leveraged Bear Miners-you buy this for 3x short exposure to gold miners.
 The 60 min chart confirms the negative of GDX and shows trading miners from the short side is where the probabilities are,

 Same with the 15 min chart of DUST

 Very short term we have a negative intraday divergence from late yesterday confirming the short term positive in GDX, this means DUST can probably be picked up at better levels some time today.

 The same on the 3 min intraday chart.

 And just like GLD/GDX, the 5 min is where the divergences for the short term stop.

I want to look at DUST as a long below this trend line around the $35-$38

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