Thursday, August 30, 2012

Opening Indications

The market has been moving toward the longer term 3C charts, but yesterday moved excellently with the shorter term charts, now to see if it picks up on the mostly relative positive divergences for a short term bounce (relative divergences are the weakest ones). In the positioning I have currently, it's hard to lose, if the market just sees the floor fall out, 95% of my positioning is ready for that, if we do get a short term bounce, then I have a chance to open Put positions I have been waiting on. This move down this early in the day seems to point toward a bounce.

The charts...
 SPY 1 min is followed to  perfection as the move yesterday was leading negative, a slight relative positive now.

 The 2 min also went from a relative negative to a leading negative yesterday and has a larger relative positive at this morning's lows.

 The 3 min chart just went very negative yesterday and remains in line with price.

 The 5 min chart with a relative positive divergence this a.m.

 The 15 min chart either hasn't caught up this early which is probable, or remains in a leading position.



 SPY 60 min sees a deeper leading negative divergence at each resistance level broken to the upside, think about that from an institutional point of view.

 DIA negative divergence yesterday on the 1 min, a relative positive this a.m.

 2 min chart went leading negative yesterday, looks like the SPY 3 min

 DIA 3 min relative negative yesterday with a relative positive today.

 DIA 5 min shows the trend line I pointed out last week and how the breaking above it would encourage bulls, look at the deterioration in 3C after the break above the downtrend line. We also have a smaller positive divergence this a.m.

 IWM 1 min deteriorated all day yesterday, it has a relative positive this a.m. thus far.

 IWM 2 min also fell apart all day yesterday, also with a relative positive this morning.

 Look at the leading negative yesterday in the IWM 3 min, it looks like the SPY and DIA in this timeframe.

 IWM 5 min with a relative negative yesterday and a relative positive this morning.

 QQQ 1 min went in to a leading negative divergence yesterday, falls today, there is a relative positive currently.

 The QQQ 2 min really fell apart yesterday with a horrible leading negative divergence, there's a much weaker relative positive at the lows this a.m.

 The 3 min also fell apart in the afternoon, there's a relative positive in effect now.

 The 5 min with a decent relative positive.

The bigger picture, the QQQ is still in a range I would consider to be the head fake area, a move below this range should see fast deterioration as we saw in BIDU as one of the first stocks to brea its head fake area, again note the leading negative divergence once resistance levels are broken, mostly around the $67 area, that's also where we should see a nasty downside break.

The first post of the day calling for a short term move up did not come from these charts though, it came from looking at an overwhelming number of individual equities.

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