Thursday, August 30, 2012

AAPL Charts

**For whatever reason I can't get a fill on the weekly AAPL options, so I just added to the September $675 calls from yesterday.

I don't recall if I have ever posted the AAPL weekly chart, but if you haven't seen it, it's a must see and is only further confirmation of the AAPL Core short position.

Here's the full micro-macro look at AAPL and with this you should better understand our planning/tactics and the idea of "Let the trade come to you", but this can only be accomplished with an edge, otherwise it's just using some concepts that have a higher rate of success and hoping for the best.

From micro to macro... As you know, I'd like to put together the second half of a put position started Friday in AAPL, but I have been steadfast in demanding a price concession to do so (plus the puts would be cheaper), I want a short term break out new high to justify adding to the position.

Yesterday and today I opened short term Call trades in AAPL, not because I'm bullish AAPL, but because I'll take whatever the market is offering, NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH aSTOCK, NEVER HATE A STOCK-look at the return we earned long FB while everyone hated it. Look at how many are in love with AAPL. These are just vehicles, not objects of affection.

 AAPL 1 min positive divergence, from what I see intraday AAPL is already putting in a short term "W" bottom and moving higher.

 2 min positive divergence

 The 2 min positive divergence is nothing compared to the 2 min trend which is much more important and leading negative as the divergence grows worse at breakouts above resistance levels higher.

 3 min positive intraday divergence.

 Again, the intraday chart is only short term moves, the 3 min trend is leading negative, this is the longer term perspective and why I'd like to sell the calls at a profit and add to the put position.


 AAPL 5 min intraday positive divergence

 5 min trend, leading negative, note the more resistance levels AAPL breaks, the heavier the institutional selling. The positive divergences stop at 5 mins. The 15 min and 30 min charts are deeply leading negative



 The 60 min chart leading negative, but interestingly right at this area which I suspect is the head fake area, meaning the downside move and momentum should start soon after this area is broken.


 The 15 min trend would seem to confirm this.


As would the 30 min trend.

Now... for the really interesting charts.
The weekly trend, there have only been two small negative divergence in AAPL on this timeframe since 1985, the largest ever is now. You can see large areas of accumulation in white, the last and by far the weakest was 2009. This looks like the end of the growth story in AAPL.

Many may not remember it, but MSFT was a growth stock, lets take a look at some of the similarities.
 MSFT from 1986 to 2000 grew an amazing 58,100% !!!

 Then MSFT declared a dividend as AAPL recently did, look at what happened to growth, -4.20% over the last 11 years!

 AAPL grew an amazing 18,323% , but no where near MSFT's growth.

Here's the weekly MSFT 3C chart going in to 2000 and since.

Here's what happened after MSFT topped...
An 86% decline.

Interesting?

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