Thursday, August 30, 2012

AAPL Update

This is more of a strategic update, the core short is the largest position in AAPL in the model portfolios, there are several September Puts that would be the second largest position and then the weekly calls that are the smallest position.

The idea hopefully is to get some intraday volatility between now and tomorrow to take advantage of the weekly calls that expire tomorrow and there's a September Call as well, if we can get a decent upside price concession then I may look at adding to the September Put in AAPL from Friday, I've been waiting all week to get those higher prices in AAPL, but this far no luck. One thing reversals generate is volatility.

The longer term positions whether puts or core shorts that have nor been touched since they were opened in April are there to take advantage of the longer term and stronger signal probabilities.

This kind of comes back to the Jesse Livermore quote about his making money wasn't because he was right on the market as many people were right, it was due to his sitting, in essence, sticking with his positions based on probabilities and not be swayed by emotion as other traders who were also right on market direction like Jesse were, emotions and lack of patience is what made the difference between making money and not, essentially as Jesse called it, "Sitting".

 AAPL breaking numerous intraday and daily support levels has created supply, that supply can be accumulated and used short term to move AAPL higher. I doubt there are many traders excited about buying AAPL today.

 AAPL 1 min chart, the 2 min is similar, these are very short term timeframes along the lines of weekly calls expiring tomorrow.

 At 3 minutes there has been a huge shift in 3C momentum that was already negative, this looks to be the exact area of the head fake top, not just because of this chart.

 The 5 min as well

 the 15 min

 Longer timeframes show heavier underlying activity, look at the 30 min in this area.

as well as the 60 min.

Ideally the calls work, ideally we get a decent enough price concession that it makes it worth while to add to puts, the core short should be fine, in my case it's filled out to max size, but if you are looking to add to a core short in AAPL, you may very well get a great opportunity soon, although we are really getting lost in the lines as these longer term positions with no leverage are probably just fine to enter anywhere in this area, we are ultimately talking about a couple of percent.

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